Why is everyone jumping onto every shift in the model track and not comparing the new ones with the old ones?
To hype a hit for Tampa is irresponsible this far out. It hasn't finished with Cuba and we have no idea which part of Cuba will take the brunt of this storm. And, it is possible it stays on the eastern tip that I don't believe has high mtn ranges. Desert like conditions around Gitmo.
With the GFDL swinging back to the favored path yesterday of the East Coast Scenario I believe anything beyond figuring out today and tomorrow is wild speculation and panics people.
The question remains. Is the high to the north of Fay (a weak high) strong enough to keep her westbound or weak enough to allow her to begin moving more to the north.
Do not be fooled into believing a storm has to make a gradual turn from w to wnw to nw to nnw.. no it doesn't. They often stop in mid-stream.
On the water vapor imagery all afternoon there have been pop up showers in the straits where the river of dry air was positioned to the nw of Fay. It's almost gone and the barometer has dropped in Miami from a healthy high of 30.05 this morning to 29.99 this afternoon (with no rain storms anywhere to account for the drop) so look at the water vapor loop like Clark said and see which way the moisture is going.
It is very reasonable to believe the GFDL is on to something. Either it's your "go to" model or it's not. But the track from the NHC will take both the HWRF and the GFDL into account and they will find a balance.
Stop looking at the words TAMPA on TWC and focus on the whole state because much of Florida will have to deal with Fay soon.
And, the center is just reaching the tiny eastern tip of Cuba and if it is beginning to lift to the wnw then it won't be over land for very long.
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Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band
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