Here's the headache inducing part of the storm, intensity is a crap shoot...
From the 5PM 8/16 Discussion:
When fay is over water... it appears that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening through 72 hours. Thus... the intensity will be controlled by land interaction and the resulting impacts on the storm structure.
All guidance continues to forecast strengthening... and the intensity forecast follows suit in bet agreement with the ships model. However... this is a low confidence intensity forecast. Fay could strengthen rapidly if it becomes well organized over water, such as while passing south of Cuba,, or over the straits of Florida, on the other hand... it might not strengthen much at all if land interaction prevents organization.
So the current intensity forecast is a compromise, hopefully the forecast is too strong. This is the part that probably causes the hurricane center the most grief with warning issuance.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 86104
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center