Satellite appearances can certainly be deceiving at times. The 57kt surface winds, if that is a legitimate surface wind reading, would seem to indicate rapid intensification, and 65mph intensity in the intermediate advisory... but was it just a short gust? If Fay crosses central (or even - horrors - western Cuba), I would not expect any weakening at all, assuming the storm is headed north at the time. Overall, I too think the intensity forecast is very conservative... but best not to panic Floridians prematurely.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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