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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks
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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Questions
      Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM

Quote:

I don't say much but I listen to this site a lot. Here are some thoughts I'd like to share:
  • Folks on this site are astute sources of insight but they are not God. No one knows exactly what a storm will do.
  • The Hurricane center has a lot of smart people working there and they are very rarely wrong. If you listen to what they say in terms of preparedness you won't go wrong.

<snip>




I would be cautious about putting too much faith in the NHC's prediction and watch the entire cone. I left my boarded up, stocked, prepared home for Charley, and headed inland since I was on that direct hit line and we were ordered to evacuate. We evacuated to Arcadia and ended up enduring Charley at full Cat. 4 strength in an unboarded, unprepared home. We stepped out to a world that cannot be described once that storm was over. It took a week before roads were cleared enough to allow us to return home. In the meantime we were without provisions. We returned home to find not a single palm frond disturbed and life going on as usual.

So, I'm understandably skeptical of the "experts".

If the NHC says it's going to hit Tampa, it might just hit Ft. Myers instead. So wherever you plan to be, make plans early and prepare the location of where you plan to spend your time regardless of the predictions.

There IS a "cone" for a reason...and where you were located was well within that cone of error. The NHC has done a fabulous job in the last few years and you should be grateful that you had somewhere to come home to..instead of complaining about the place you went to that got so hard hit...weather is a science, not an absolute. I surely hope we don't have to have a repeat conversation about Fay..just bear in mind, my friend, that you, as well as I, are well within that "cone".

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Aug 17 2008 01:31 AM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Clark Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 craigm   Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Lee-Delray   Sun Aug 17 2008 09:01 AM
. * * East Coast Beach   Sun Aug 17 2008 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 17 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 17 2008 05:13 AM
. * * Morning AFD roundup danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 17 2008 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... chase 22   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... weathernet   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... scottsvb   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... weathernet   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... vmzamorano   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... scottsvb   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Clark   Sun Aug 17 2008 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... LoisCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Mike N   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Just a couple of quick notes... Clark   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? doug   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Genesis   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? StormHound   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Questions Bev   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? weathernet   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Hugh   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? pcbjr   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Questions mikethewreck   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Robert   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Hugh   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:36 PM
. * * Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? chase 22   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? flanewscameraman   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? BillD   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? jayb   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... FIREREALTY   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? JMII   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Renter's Insurance?? FIREREALTY   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? KC   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? saluki   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? conschscooter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 16 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? laurie66   Sat Aug 16 2008 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? VolusiaMike   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:46 PM
. * * wondering!!! watchinout   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? B_from_NC   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? laurie66   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? craigm   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? bradrd   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? DaViking   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? DarleneCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:20 AM
. * * Center reforming? pcola   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba DarleneCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Aesh   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:05 AM
. * * ship obs Robert   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Clark   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:36 AM

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