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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Bev
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...

Re: Questions
Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM

Quote:

I don't say much but I listen to this site a lot. Here are some thoughts I'd like to share:

Folks on this site are astute sources of insight but they are not God. No one knows exactly what a storm will do.
The Hurricane center has a lot of smart people working there and they are very rarely wrong. If you listen to what they say in terms of preparedness you won't go wrong.

<snip>

I would be cautious about putting too much faith in the NHC's prediction and watch the entire cone. I left my boarded up, stocked, prepared home for Charley, and headed inland since I was on that direct hit line and we were ordered to evacuate. We evacuated to Arcadia and ended up enduring Charley at full Cat. 4 strength in an unboarded, unprepared home. We stepped out to a world that cannot be described once that storm was over. It took a week before roads were cleared enough to allow us to return home. In the meantime we were without provisions. We returned home to find not a single palm frond disturbed and life going on as usual.

So, I'm understandably skeptical of the "experts".

If the NHC says it's going to hit Tampa, it might just hit Ft. Myers instead. So wherever you plan to be, make plans early and prepare the location of where you plan to spend your time regardless of the predictions.

There IS a "cone" for a reason...and where you were located was well within that cone of error. The NHC has done a fabulous job in the last few years and you should be grateful that you had somewhere to come home to..instead of complaining about the place you went to that got so hard hit...weather is a science, not an absolute. I surely hope we don't have to have a repeat conversation about Fay..just bear in mind, my friend, that you, as well as I, are well within that "cone".

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Aug 17 2008 01:31 AM)

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	Clark	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008	craigm	Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 AM
Re: East Coast	Lee-Delray	Sun Aug 17 2008 09:01 AM
East Coast	Beach	Sun Aug 17 2008 08:53 AM
Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008	OrlandoDan	Sun Aug 17 2008 08:41 AM
Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 17 2008 05:13 AM
Morning AFD roundup	danielw	Sun Aug 17 2008 04:36 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	chase 22	Sun Aug 17 2008 02:49 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	weathernet	Sun Aug 17 2008 02:25 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	scottsvb	Sun Aug 17 2008 02:08 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	weathernet	Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	vmzamorano	Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	scottsvb	Sun Aug 17 2008 01:23 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 17 2008 01:17 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	Clark	Sun Aug 17 2008 12:48 AM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	LoisCane	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:18 PM
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...	Mike N	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:14 PM
Just a couple of quick notes...	Clark	Sat Aug 16 2008 09:06 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	doug	Sat Aug 16 2008 09:00 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	Genesis	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	StormHound	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
Re: Questions	Bev	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	engicedave	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:40 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	weathernet	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:36 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	Hugh	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:34 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:31 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	pcbjr	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:28 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	WeatherNut	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:09 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	engicedave	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:54 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	Steve H1	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:53 PM
Re: Questions	mikethewreck	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:51 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:50 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?	engicedave	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	Robert	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:40 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Hugh	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:36 PM
Could Fay turn into a Charley?	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:34 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Steve H1	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:28 PM
Re: Center reforming?	WeatherNut	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:21 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Lee-Delray	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:20 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:16 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Lee-Delray	Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
Re: Center reforming?	chase 22	Sat Aug 16 2008 06:31 PM
Re: Center reforming?	MikeC	Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 16 2008 05:43 PM
Re: Center reforming?	flanewscameraman	Sat Aug 16 2008 05:34 PM
Re: Center reforming?	BillD	Sat Aug 16 2008 05:19 PM
Re: Center reforming?	jayb	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:54 PM
Re: Here we go......	Lee-Delray	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:53 PM
Re: Here we go......	engicedave	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:51 PM
Re: Here we go......	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:46 PM
Re: Here we go......	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:44 PM
Re: Here we go......	engicedave	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:42 PM
Re: Here we go......	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:34 PM
Re: Here we go......	FIREREALTY	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:28 PM
Re: Center reforming?	JMII	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:23 PM
Re: Center reforming?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:17 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:16 PM
Re: Center reforming?	engicedave	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:05 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Lee-Delray	Sat Aug 16 2008 04:03 PM
Re: Center reforming?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:55 PM
Re: Center reforming?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:51 PM
Re: Center reforming?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:48 PM
Re: Renter's Insurance??	FIREREALTY	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:33 PM
Re: Center reforming?	KC	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:31 PM
Re: Center reforming?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:29 PM
Re: Center reforming?	saluki	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:13 PM
Re: Center reforming?	conschscooter	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:02 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Beaumont, TX	Sat Aug 16 2008 02:47 PM
Re: Center reforming?	laurie66	Sat Aug 16 2008 02:14 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 16 2008 01:59 PM
Re: Center reforming?	VolusiaMike	Sat Aug 16 2008 01:11 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	Steve H1	Sat Aug 16 2008 01:01 PM
Re: Center reforming?	WeatherNut	Sat Aug 16 2008 12:46 PM
wondering!!!	watchinout	Sat Aug 16 2008 12:37 PM
Re: Center reforming?	B_from_NC	Sat Aug 16 2008 12:35 PM
Re: Center reforming?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
Re: Center reforming?	laurie66	Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
Re: Center reforming?	craigm	Sat Aug 16 2008 12:10 PM
Re: Center reforming?	Beaumont, TX	Sat Aug 16 2008 11:53 AM
Re: Center reforming?	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 16 2008 11:27 AM
Re: Center reforming?	charlottefl	Sat Aug 16 2008 11:23 AM
Re: Center reforming?	bradrd	Sat Aug 16 2008 11:09 AM
Re: Center reforming?	Wxwatcher2	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:58 AM
Re: Center reforming?	DaViking	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:52 AM
Re: Center reforming?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:47 AM
Re: Center reforming?	charlottefl	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:41 AM
Re: Center reforming?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:35 AM
Re: Center reforming?	DarleneCane	Sat Aug 16 2008 10:20 AM
Center reforming?	pcola	Sat Aug 16 2008 09:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	charlottefl	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	ftlaudbob	Sat Aug 16 2008 08:08 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	SkeetoBite	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	DarleneCane	Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	Aesh	Sat Aug 16 2008 06:05 AM
ship obs	Robert	Sat Aug 16 2008 06:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	Clark	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:41 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba	Storm Cooper	Sat Aug 16 2008 03:36 AM

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