Sitting here under the gun by one global model (Nogaps, that basically brings the storm up my back yard, albiet from the east so on the "cleaner" side) and looking closely at the models and environment, plus the storm itself, here's my take....
We don't know (yet) where this thing is going with any degree of confidence. The guidance envelope on the global models is wide and in fact has gotten wider in the last 24 hours. This indicates that there is an issue with initialization and upper-air environment that has not yet found resolution. As the storm gets more organized this will probably tighten up significantly, and that's good.
The bad news is that a "strafing run" up the west coast of Florida is probably the worst case for a number of people, including especially Tampa, which has a bay that is open to "cramming" of surge from a storm that takes this path. It hasn't happened in a very long time but that doesn't mean it can't.
Best case is that we get a bit more of a poleward movement and Cuba inhibits the storm materially, and it doesn't have enough time to get its act together before impacting land. This makes everyone "happier" in terms of total impact, but it will still ruin some people's days. The worst case is that it skims Cuba and gets plenty of organization before crossing on the western half, where the terrain won't tear it up as much and the time over land will do little as it will be short. That's bad.
I'm not getting alarmed yet but I am getting ready and inventorying what I need in the event it looks to be headed on a NoGaps-ish path. I think we'll have a much better idea tomorrow afternoon or evening, when there should be more data and a couple more model runs.
I'm also intrigued by the GOES-East WV runs and it confirms, more-or-less, what the sticking points are in the NHC discussion as well as here. The bad news is that I don't see as much movement and "spit out" potential on the low out west, which would tend to auger for a more westward component to the movement. The IR shows that outflow is improving, so the real inhibitor here is land interaction, not environment.
The difficulty here is that small differences in the jet and that low, along with what happens in terms of shear, have a very large impact not only on exactly where the storm comes in but also on how strong it is. There is plenty of oceanic heat content to support a 'Cane, so that's not a factor - its the environment and particularly how much interaction with land (Cuba) we get that will tell the tale on this one.
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