Quote: There is no reason to change the NHC path... the 2 main models GFS shows just offshore the west coast of florida all the way past clearwater....and the GFDL has now moved closer with a landfall from Ft Myers-Sarasota up just east of Tampa. So they went down the middle of the guidance (as they said) The tropical models will jump around and are really useless. Main models are the GFDL,GFS,ECMWF, FSU-Super and somewhat the other globals come into account.
The GFDL is nowhere near Tampa on the image I see (8pm ET run). It's an eastern outlier. ALL of the other models are west of the official forecast except for NAM.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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