Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba

These are excerpts from the various NWS Offices in FL. Not all of the Offices have updated their Forecasts.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY EFFECTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY) A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING WITH TS FAY IN PLACE SSE OF CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY AS FAY MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FAY. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS FAY LIFTING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT SW FL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH AND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IMPACTING WEST CENTRAL FL TUESDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THIS STORM.

LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT) OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF TS FAY CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL. BY TUE NIGHT TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE CONDITION POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE N THRU THE BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST TUE NT INTO WED AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT. NUMEROUS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS FROM FAY ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL NWS TBW PRODUCTS WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED...AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONCE FAY FINALLY MOVES N OF THE AREA LATER WED WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND HOLDS IN THE REGION FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

BEYOND TODAY... FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 6 INCHES RAINFALL AS THE STORM MOVES BY / ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH S FL FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD IS AN INCREASE IN THE HELICITIES. GUIDANCE RANGES HELICITY FROM AROUND 150 TO 500 WHICH WILL MOST DEFIANTLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES / MINI SUPER CELLS UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO MID DAY. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO N FL WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WITH HIGH PWATS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA AND A BIT OF CONVERGENCE LEFT OVER THE AREA NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. THURSDAY ON... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FAY...OR WILL IT BE HURRICANE FAY...TO BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE 34-KNOT WIND CONE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK FORECAST NOW JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL KEEP THE POPS ABOVE CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS FAY PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY... TROUGH/SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OK/TX REGION ACCORDING TO GFS. THIS SYSTEM IS A MAJOR PLAYER ON WHAT FAY WILL GO. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY FILLS AND PUSHES NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMNANT DOES MUCH THE SAME. THE 00Z EURO HAS ANOTHER SOLUTION. FAY TURNS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND GETS STUCK FOR A FEW DAYS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH BLOCKS ITS PATH. IN OUR AREA...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND FAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAKES ANOTHER HEAVY WORK SCHEDULE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS SHOWS MORE A VIGOUROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 428 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

MON-WED...LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF FAY IS OVER CUBA MON MORNING THEN APPROACHING DRY TORTUGAS MON EVENING AND NEARING THE FL WEST COAST BY TUE PM. WHILE TOO MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD NOT BE GIVEN TO THE EXACT FORECAST PATH THIS FAR OUT...APPEARS THAT RAIN BAND EFFECTS FROM FAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF EC FL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME TS FORCE WINDS REACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF FAY...EC FL EXPECTED TO FEEL THE WORST EFFECTS TUE/TUE NIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NMRS/LKLY POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF FAY. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY WILL PUT EC FL IN A VULNERABLE LOCATION FOR TC TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS FROM PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS. AT A MINIMUM...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FROM FAY AND TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES AROUND THE HOME ACCORDINGLY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ALSO URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST TRACK AND EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM FAY SINCE FORECAST REVISIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAY EVOLVES AND APPROACHES FL.

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