CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE RIGHT, (earlier than expected ?)
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. (So now they are not so confident in thier initial track or forecasted track.. could this mean a shift to the EAST in the track ?)
THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
I'll be the first to admit I'm in no way an expert on any of this, but it sounds to me like they ( NHC ) still has NO CLUE on where Fay may go or end up..
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 85993
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center