CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE RIGHT, (earlier than expected ?)
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. (So now they are not so confident in thier initial track or forecasted track.. could this mean a shift to the EAST in the track ?)
THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
I'll be the first to admit I'm in no way an expert on any of this, but it sounds to me like they ( NHC ) still has NO CLUE on where Fay may go or end up..
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