Quote: I am very far from being an expert on these things, but it sure looks to me like Fay is dying out.
Its taken a beating for sure, pretty much cut off from its warm ocean energy source by Cuba. Personally I don't believe the 50mph wind estimate at this time, I doubt its blowing over 40 at the center (provided you could even find it!).
Once Fay moves off Cuba its going to start to get squeezed between the low (west of it) and the front (to the north). I just don't see how it can intensify given those conditions. I do see more of turn to the east today versus yesterday so NHC cone appears to be a good average of what could (should?) happen. I think the possibility of Panhandle landing is getting more remote, between Naples and Tampa seems like a better bet. I'd agree with current GFS model, after landfall the track will head east with storm exiting between Daytona and Jacksonville.
Cat 1 at landfall is about it, but given its condition now even that seems like an over estimate. Everything depends on the arch of this turn to the north, if she swings wide she can gain strength, if she cuts the corner tight (like I've been thinking all along) she'll be in Key West and already sucking up drier air off the mainland which will zap any development as she comes ashore about the same place Charley did.
However the sloppyness of this system makes it hard to judge. The center could hop Cuba early or drag right thru the middle of country, either way the vertical structure of Fay as a whole will be ruined so it should remain weak.
The standard disclaimer applies: I'm not a professional, just throwing my dart on the board for comparison.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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