They were multiple centers, it could be clearly seen on radar about an hour ago: one center moved over Key West then flew off rather quickly to the ENE, while a second center currently appears to be forming to the NW. The previous center has created the famous comma shape that now runs thru Marathon in the middle Keys.
The "trap" they are talking about is visible on the water vapor loop, you can see the outflow is being blocked to the NW, as there is a strong line of dry air pushing against the system. This should limit Fay's western motion and keep her going north, so landfall around Naples sounds about right . I also think some of this dry air got sucked in as the huge blowup to west is not holding together or getting full wrapped up just yet... but its sure trying. Just starting to lose the eastern edge on the visible as the sun sets.
The wind in Cudjoe has switched to SSW and pressure is slowly being to inch up so Fay is moving away from the lower Keys and into Florida Bay. Its going to be a real close call regarding strength, a central core seems to be forming near the center of rotation so Cat 1 is looks more likely with every passing minute. Winds speeds at the surface are not very impressive and there are no weather stations till she reaches the SW coast so its a tough call.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for: David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South
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