There seems to be quite a bit of worry about Fay this evening....let me address a few things...
1) There will not likely be any wholesale changes out of the 11pm package from NHC about the evolution of the future track. They generally don't mess with the late package very much, and will likely just refine their forecast, not make wholesale changes. There is really no reason for them to change very much right now..perhaps a slight shift to the east in the first 12-24 hrs, but the rest of the forecast is fairly sound at this point.
2) We are getting some excellent data right now from the Keys Nexrad, and you are seeing a strengthening TS doing what it does...the morphology of Fay is changing as the storm evolves, which is why you are seeing various motions, jogs, etc. You have to use average motions (ie, over 4-6 hrs) to get a true picture of what Fay is doing...don't worry about a jog to the east or west or whatever unless it lasts over 2-4 hours..then you can start to fret over a directional change.
3) in the same vein...the only reliable sats to use in center tracking are vis's...IR's can fool you, and WV is WORTHLESS (I say this every year...LOL). At this point you should only use radar and recon to determine where the center is.
There is going to be a LOT of study of Fay from a forecast performance standpoint. I am starting to think that the synoptic recon missions actually degraded the model performance, instead of enhancing it.
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