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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: the cobra maneuver
      Tue Aug 19 2008 07:03 AM

Quote:

I had a conversation with Clark tonight, and we are somewhat confused as to how the GFDL and HWRF are coming up with their forecasts, especially since the GFDL uses the GFS for it's inital data.

Strange as it may seem, the GFS solution is quite possible, especially since the ECMWF (probably the best model in the world right now) backs it up with the same idea, just a bit further north. The tracks that just plow NNW at high speed just don't make sense.




I was glad to see that the GFDL came around somewhat to the GFS idea with its 00z run tonight, showing a storm backing to the west around the building ridge before turning northward on its eastern periphery. The HWRF does the same now too, just a bit further north and faster. Ultimately, we have two camps for the post-Florida peninsula landfall:

1) One camp of models (GFS, NAM, UKMET, ECMWF) suggests a slow movement NNE-NE across the state before slowing further, turning westward, and moving toward the Gulf.
2) Another camp of models (GFDL, HWRF, Canadian) suggests the same movement across the state before turning northwest toward GA or SC, then accelerating northward across the eastern US.

The difference between these camps appears to lie in how they handle the eventual evolution of the ridge that builds in across the eastern US. The latter camp erode it and do not reinforce it from the west, instead showing a deeper trough entering from the midwest and accelerating the storm toward the Great Lakes. The former camp reinforces it from the west, showing a weaker trough from the midwest that deamplifies as it moves eastward, allowing the storm to become trapped in the southeast.

Ultimately, we've got a lot of Florida for Fay to get across first with an uncertain intensity picture, with radar data from Key West and Miami both showing a partial eyewall forming, about 50-60% closed and 20 or so miles in diameter. Pressures have slowly fallen through the evening but the surface winds haven't done the same. It's still possible for Fay to become a hurricane before landfall in the early morning on the coast south of Naples, but time is running short. Nevertheless, the gradually improving inner core suggests that Fay should be able to maintain itself reasonably well as it moves across Florida in the next couple of days, bringing heavy rains and the threat for isolated tornadoes as it does so. It is way too early to speculate as to what may be left of Fay when it gets to the Atlantic -- if it gets to the Atlantic -- yet alone to the Gulf. However, those from South Carolina around to Mobile should still keep an eye on the evolution of Fay and the upper level synoptic pattern the next couple of days. If nothing else, there are bound to be some good rains around for the next few days.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the Southwest MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 19 2008 07:03 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver craigm   Tue Aug 19 2008 09:02 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Clark   Tue Aug 19 2008 07:03 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver DebbiePSL   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:59 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver dolfinatic   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:56 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Robert   Tue Aug 19 2008 06:04 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver scottsvb   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:04 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 05:04 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:53 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver cieldumort   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:52 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver MadDog   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:45 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:45 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver dolfinatic   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:45 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:41 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:38 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Bev   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:37 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:21 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:16 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:12 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 04:07 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver flanewscameraman   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:58 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:51 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver kromdog   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:45 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:26 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver kromdog   Tue Aug 19 2008 03:10 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver metwannabe   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... smorse22   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... scottsvb   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:12 AM
. * * Just a Friendly Reminder Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Tropicbird   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... cieldumort   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... charlottefl   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Colleen A.   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:26 AM
. * * Re: the cobra maneuver LDH892   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... flanewscameraman   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Some evening thoughts... danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:48 AM
. * * the cobra maneuver HanKFranK   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:46 AM
. * * Some evening thoughts... wxman007   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Fay West FL Jess   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Fay StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:32 AM
. * * Fay danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Tampa Forecast zacker20   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Tampa Forecast StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Fay Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:20 AM
. * * Tampa Forecast danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South LoisCane   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Fay Robert   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South JMII   Tue Aug 19 2008 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South West FL Jess   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South OrlandoDan   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:57 PM
. * * Landfall Timing zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South West FL Jess   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South cieldumort   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:52 PM
. * * Hurricane Fay Beach   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South West FL Jess   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South LoisCane   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South cate   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South rayboat   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South smorse22   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South cate   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South metwannabe   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South kromdog   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South WeatherNut   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South BillD   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Beach   Mon Aug 18 2008 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South WeatherNut   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South smorse22   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South metwannabe   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South weathernet   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South zacker20   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South WeatherNut   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South smorse22   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South MichaelA   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South WeatherNut   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South MichaelA   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South JMII   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South craigm   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South MichaelA   Mon Aug 18 2008 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 18 2008 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South B_from_NC   Mon Aug 18 2008 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South BillD   Mon Aug 18 2008 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South West FL Jess   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Thunderbird12   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Rich B   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South bradrd   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Rich B   Mon Aug 18 2008 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Geoff   Mon Aug 18 2008 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South Rich B   Mon Aug 18 2008 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the South MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 18 2008 07:03 PM

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