Tropical Storm Fay Approaching Florida from the Southwest

I was glad to see that the GFDL came around somewhat to the GFS idea with its 00z run tonight, showing a storm backing to the west around the building ridge before turning northward on its eastern periphery. The HWRF does the same now too, just a bit further north and faster. Ultimately, we have two camps for the post-Florida peninsula landfall:

1) One camp of models (GFS, NAM, UKMET, ECMWF) suggests a slow movement NNE-NE across the state before slowing further, turning westward, and moving toward the Gulf.
2) Another camp of models (GFDL, HWRF, Canadian) suggests the same movement across the state before turning northwest toward GA or SC, then accelerating northward across the eastern US.

The difference between these camps appears to lie in how they handle the eventual evolution of the ridge that builds in across the eastern US. The latter camp erode it and do not reinforce it from the west, instead showing a deeper trough entering from the midwest and accelerating the storm toward the Great Lakes. The former camp reinforces it from the west, showing a weaker trough from the midwest that deamplifies as it moves eastward, allowing the storm to become trapped in the southeast.

Ultimately, we've got a lot of Florida for Fay to get across first with an uncertain intensity picture, with radar data from Key West and Miami both showing a partial eyewall forming, about 50-60% closed and 20 or so miles in diameter. Pressures have slowly fallen through the evening but the surface winds haven't done the same. It's still possible for Fay to become a hurricane before landfall in the early morning on the coast south of Naples, but time is running short. Nevertheless, the gradually improving inner core suggests that Fay should be able to maintain itself reasonably well as it moves across Florida in the next couple of days, bringing heavy rains and the threat for isolated tornadoes as it does so. It is way too early to speculate as to what may be left of Fay when it gets to the Atlantic -- if it gets to the Atlantic -- yet alone to the Gulf. However, those from South Carolina around to Mobile should still keep an eye on the evolution of Fay and the upper level synoptic pattern the next couple of days. If nothing else, there are bound to be some good rains around for the next few days.

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