Quote: I predict a Naples landfall as a minimal Cat 1 around 5AM tomorrow.
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY MAKING LANDFALL AT CAPE ROMANO... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH
I was off by 20 miles and 15 mph, but got the timing just right. Looks like she sucked in too much dry air after that last flurry of convection in Florida Bay and thus never made hurricane status. After seeing only 50 mph winds in the Keys I knew the NHC forecast of Cat 1 wasn't likely. Also should have remembered that Marco Island sticks out into the Gulf and given Fay's track she would hit there BEFORE Naples.
I give the NHC a "B" on this one, considering how sloppy Fay was, with the center constantly relocating and the lack of access to Cuban air space they did a really good job. A touch too aggressive with the strength (which they tend to do as a CYA) and too far NW on the track up until the last 12 hours.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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