.LONG TERM... (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THROWN US YET ANOTHER CURVE BALL AS THEIR LATEST SOLUTIONS TAKE FAY INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THIS WEEKEND (AS OPPOSED TO A TRACK ACROSS SOUTH GA AND SOUTH AL). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RE- STRENGTHENING DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF FAY SURVIVES HER TREKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY TAKES FAY INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MS WHILE THE GFS TAKES FAY SLOWLY INLAND AROUND PANAMA CITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH EITHER SCENARIO WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN...RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OF COURSE THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS. WE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ADVERTISING MUCH OF A WIND THREAT...BUT IF THESE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY START DOING THIS.
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