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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

fay heading seaward
Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 PM

took a break from the radar for a few hours... last i looked it was trudging over northern okeechobee county. expected to see it near yeehaw junction at 11, but there it is in indian river county... edging northeastward and nearing the coastline around sebastian inlet. presentation on radar and satellite has decayed markedly in the last 2-3 hrs, with a noticeable dry slot and a considerable deterioration of the inner eyewall. am willing to bet that will be short lived.. that tomorrow morning the inner eyewall convection will recover as the core moves over water with considerable heat content.
willing to put my future philosophy on the storm out at this time. believe that fay is going to rebuild an inner core tomorrow and deepen rapidly at some point going into thursday. think the nhc track is fairly sound.. would edge my target window more from jacksonville to brunswick (bullseye at the ga/fl border, st marys ga) with a more gradual left turn... think the storm will clear the coastline enough to do some substantial deepening and be a significant hurricane by thursday pm. expect it to remain compact enough that wind damage will be in a relatively narrow swath, say 30-50 miles dia. i don't think the kind of deepening shown on the gfdl and hwrf are impossible given the compact nature of the storm. however, counting on odds that eyewall replacement or tepid waters at the immediate coast will have it weakening a tad at landfall. think the nhc official is at the bottom of the range i'd expect for landfall.. best bet winds 80-90kt. minor chance of major hurricane winds, but highly uncertain. expect the storm to be near or over the florida panhandle by sunday.
keep in mind that's just my best guess. if the storm hugs the coastline it may never get above tropical storm status. if it turns left as hard as the global consensus it'll probably be a force to be reckoned with in the gulf. if it swings a wider arc, georgia beware.
HF 0329z20august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	MikeC	Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 PM
Re: fay heading seaward	kromdog	Wed Aug 20 2008 09:58 AM
Fay Nearly Stationary; Gulf of Mexico?	berrywr	Wed Aug 20 2008 09:45 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	berrywr	Wed Aug 20 2008 09:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	mcgowanmc	Wed Aug 20 2008 09:17 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	mikethewreck	Wed Aug 20 2008 08:45 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	pcola	Wed Aug 20 2008 08:09 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	charlottefl	Wed Aug 20 2008 05:00 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	DebbiePSL	Wed Aug 20 2008 04:20 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	stinger	Wed Aug 20 2008 04:08 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	DebbiePSL	Wed Aug 20 2008 02:48 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 20 2008 02:43 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 20 2008 02:32 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	DebbiePSL	Wed Aug 20 2008 02:20 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	Storm Hunter	Wed Aug 20 2008 02:07 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	scottsvb	Wed Aug 20 2008 01:42 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	LoisCane	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:58 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	wxman007	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:47 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	Colleen A.	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:43 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	allan	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:43 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	wxman007	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:33 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	LoisCane	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:26 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	Big Red Machine	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:06 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	wxman007	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:05 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	Big Red Machine	Wed Aug 20 2008 12:00 AM
Re: fay heading seaward	danielw	Tue Aug 19 2008 11:58 PM
Re: fay heading seaward	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 19 2008 11:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	BillD	Tue Aug 19 2008 11:52 PM
fay heading seaward	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 19 2008 11:29 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Bloodstar	Tue Aug 19 2008 10:53 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Jumaduke	Tue Aug 19 2008 10:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 19 2008 10:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	gulf coaster	Tue Aug 19 2008 10:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	wxman007	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	sprghill	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:47 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	ricky	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Tazmanian93	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	scottsvb	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:32 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	rayboat	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	GoBigSurf	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	wxman007	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Tazmanian93	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	metwannabe	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	B_from_NC	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	dolfinatic	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	WeatherNut	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Big Red Machine	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	wxman007	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:06 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Storm Cooper	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Tazmanian93	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	engicedave	Tue Aug 19 2008 09:02 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:55 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	wxman007	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	lawgator	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:47 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	ricky	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Duane	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:38 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Hugh	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	OrlandoDan	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	dolfinatic	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	gatorman	Tue Aug 19 2008 08:08 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	MikeC	Tue Aug 19 2008 07:47 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	wxman007	Tue Aug 19 2008 07:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	OrlandoDan	Tue Aug 19 2008 07:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Hugh	Tue Aug 19 2008 07:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	pcola	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Joe	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	scottsvb	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	engicedave	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Joe	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	MikeC	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:22 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	M.A.	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	OrlandoDan	Tue Aug 19 2008 06:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Storm Hunter	Tue Aug 19 2008 05:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	pcola	Tue Aug 19 2008 05:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast	Humanriff	Tue Aug 19 2008 05:14 PM

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