Fay has steering currents that have been subborn to say the least. I no longer expect Fay to be south of Crystal River, The ridge building north of her is just not far enough south and is more less seting up ENE-WNW by tonight. This should cause her to move W-WNW across the state. Due to the ridge building in further north, Fay has wobbled around on a general stop and go nw direction over the past 24hrs and is now about .5dg further north before her W movement. I really dont know what else to say, but I expected her to be moving inland very soon, my time frame was 9am-12pm around 29.1N, I may only be off by .1-.3 but I still didnt expect a NW movement into a building ridge,especially when she first stalled out around 28.9N (last night). The ridging set up along the lines of the GFS-Ukmet instead of the GFS-ECMWF. The main issue with Fay is the Rainfall! Period!, Wind is really not much of a factor unless you live near the center of landfall and in the squalls. I do expect some good feeder bands coming in from the gulf once Fay crosses west of 82W and 29.5N later tonight to set up from Tampa Bay north. These bands could produce gusts up to 40-50mph and sparadic tornados, especially from Pasco county north. Exact bands on where they set up is like trying to predict a lake effect snow squall band on who will get 6-10 inches while 5 miles away you get less than 2".
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