Fay seems to be wobbling a bit here very near Dog Island, FL, just southwest of Carrabelle along the Franklin County coastline. This is likely temporary and the storm should resume a westward movement at 4-7 kt in the next few hours. Peak surface winds are still about in the 20-25 mph range inland with some higher gusts; winds just off the surface about 2000-2500 ft aloft to the east of Tallahassee have consistently been to 60-65 kt on radar this evening. Some of this is making it down to the surface but only in isolated gusts to 35-40 mph. The strongest surface winds remain over water south of the storm in Apalachee Bay.
Fortunately, there is not a lot of dry air intrusion into Fay right now. While it would likely help take care of some of the rainfall, it would also enhance the potential for damaging wind gusts to make it to the surface akin to the severe thunderstorms we see over land. As it maintains a healthy tropical structure, the primary threat remains rain rather than straight-line winds. Isolated tornadoes, particularly well east and northeast of the storm, also remain a concern with the threat region shifting toward I-75 in Georgia and North Florida tomorrow. Any breaks in the clouds well east of the center will help provide the instability needed for storms to rotate in those outer feeder bands. The SPC has this well-highlighted for the next 24-30 hours.
Ultimately, with Fay moving into the panhandle and skirting the northern Gulf, the precipitation shield on its east side is filling in significantly due to a large influx of moist, unstable maritime air. For the past 24-48 hours this inflow has been restricted by the Florida peninsula but now that is no longer the case. The numerical models picked up on this and seem to have been correct in advertising the rainfall threat to ramp up once the storm made it to Apalachee Bay. Torrential rains with avg. rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr in many areas are likely across southern Georgia and the Florida panhandle over the course of the day Saturday. Storm total rainfall figures are already in excess of 4" in many spots across the region and these will likely double tomorrow. Travel on the roads is not recommended due to the potential for flooding, downed trees, and downed power lines in this relatively heavily forested area of the southeast.
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