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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Fay & Future Features
      Mon Aug 25 2008 05:41 AM

Just a few items to add to what has already been said of 94L -
94L may not be as much like Fay as one might think:

Based on surface reports and microwave images, it appears that 94L has a better chance of already having a sufficiently tight closed surface circulation, and not merely an incredibly impressive mid-level low. Additionally, it is unlikely that 94 gets upgraded over land.. and to that point, also much more likely that 94L spends a good deal more time over warm water while it is still getting its act together than Fay did.

94 is already land-locked. Fay had a brief moment in time where she still could have scooted on out to sea. This will not be the case with 94. If indeed it is our next TC, as looks probable, it already has nowhere to go but on to one or more landfalls.

As for looking to models right now - forget them. None of the most recent model runs initialize 94L in much of any worthwhile way, if at all. Listen to what the NHC has to say. If you can't resist following along with the models, at least wait until tomorrow's runs are in. By then they may have had time to digest some accurate info and process it a little better.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fay & Future Features Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Aug 25 2008 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features flanewscameraman   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features M.A.   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:21 AM
. * * last microwave pass Raymond   Mon Aug 25 2008 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features cieldumort   Mon Aug 25 2008 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 25 2008 05:12 AM
. * * Re: "Son of Fay" LoisCane   Sun Aug 24 2008 11:57 PM
. * * "Son of Fay" weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features allan   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features shewtinstar   Sun Aug 24 2008 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features metwannabe   Sun Aug 24 2008 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features johnnylightning   Sun Aug 24 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features craigm   Sun Aug 24 2008 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features LoisCane   Sun Aug 24 2008 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Hugh   Sun Aug 24 2008 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features M.A.   Sun Aug 24 2008 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features johnnylightning   Sun Aug 24 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features MichaelA   Sun Aug 24 2008 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features CDMOrlando   Sun Aug 24 2008 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features CDMOrlando   Sun Aug 24 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes weathernet   Sun Aug 24 2008 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes WeatherNut   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes tropics   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes scottsvb   Sun Aug 24 2008 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Administrative Notes LoisCane   Sun Aug 24 2008 09:58 AM
. * * Administrative Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2008 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features cate   Sat Aug 23 2008 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features gatorman   Sat Aug 23 2008 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features pcola   Sat Aug 23 2008 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 23 2008 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Fay & Future Features Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 23 2008 05:02 PM

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