Hurricane Gustav Over Haiti

Morning AFD Excerpts from around the Gulf Coast Region.

NWS Jackson, MS
...BY SUNDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
SAG INTO SRN MS WHERE THEY STALL OUT FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A 590DM 500MB ANTICYCLONE BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE
AL/TN BORDER. BY THIS TIME...HURC GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE CRANKING
THROUGH THE SRN/ERN/CENTRAL GULF REGION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. THE 00Z HWRF NOW ADVERTISING SUB 900MB PRESSURES FOR THIS
STORM SO ALL INTERESTS AROUND THE GULF SHOULD KEEP TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
Bold Emphasis added~danielw

OBVIOUSLY OUR FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF
HURC GUSTAV WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN WEAKER
STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE GULF. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NERN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS
2-300MB TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO SLOW/TURN OR EVEN LOOP GUSTAV
BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL BE IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
ON THIS ONE.

NWS Slidell, La
...LATEST OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PLACES THE STORM IN THE MIDDLE
GULF PRECARIOUSLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST OFFICE WITH THE IMPLICATION OF LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...70-80 PERCENT POPS AND RA+ WEATHER ELEMENT BASED ON
TRACK EXTRAPOLATION...THOUGH THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE REQUIREMENT OF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A PROBABLISTIC UNCERTAINTY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. OF COURSE...CHANGES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING AS FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN TIME.

NWS Tallahassee,Fl
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FROM THE FL STRAITS INTO THE SERN CONUS, AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GOMEX. THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD STEER
HURRICANE GUSTAV ON A NWLY COURSE INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND PER THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK. OUTLIERS ARE THE GFDL
AND ECMWF WHICH ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NWWD TOWARD THE TX
COAST. THE 00Z GFS TAKES GUSTAV FURTHER N ACROSS THE FL STRAITS LATE
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY MEANDERS THE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GOMEX. DUE
TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF GUSTAV, LOW CONFIDENCE
DICTATES NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS. BASED ON
THE PROJECTED POSITION OF GUSTAV BY 120 HRS, WILL CONSIDER RAISING
WINDS AND SEAS (MAINLY SWELL) FOR OUR OFFSHORE LEGS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

NWS Tampa,Fl
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL TRACK
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
THIS MORNING ARE OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES
TO INHERITED GRIDS AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL (POPS ~40% TEMPS ~90) THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NOTE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON GUSTAV...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NWS Key West,Fl
....LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE ON THE WESTERN FLANK...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TIP OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY EXTENT OF WEAKENING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH THAT THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR SERVICE AREA. IN FACT...PENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WITH DEEPENING AND INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN AVERAGE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATES FOR THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

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