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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
previously-currently
      Thu Aug 28 2008 12:32 AM

had a pretty atrocious tendency to overestimate what fay was capable of. fay was the ultimate 'huggy storm'. it just never could stop abusing itself with land interaction enough to go into a serious deepening phase. not that it's any consolation to all the folks who got flooded out by the storm. the tornado count may even end up around fifty on this one.
hopefully gustav won't be as much of a forecasting difficulty. it looked a little more straightforward yesterday before the center got stuck on the lower peninsula of haiti and stayed mostly disconnected from low-level inflow. that shouldn't stay as much a factor for a whole lot longer... it isn't hard to envision the official forecast for the storm finally starting to take shape. an organized storm making a long arcing run across the middle of the gulf over labor day weekend usually delivers a massive impact wherever it goes. we can only hope that something will prevent this, but it has the look of a classic case.
away further east is that developing 95L system northeast of the leewards. most of the global guidance wants to feed it northward through a ridge gap. the quicker it develops the more likely this will happen, and it does look to be developing. nhc will probably start issuing advisories over the next couple of cycles. a few of the models prefer to block it and shove it westward under the ridge poised to set up over the eastern u.s. for the next few days... looks less likely at this point.
more action coming across from further east... wave/low nearing 15/35 has a nice curved signature but very little convection. it does seem like the saharan air layer is doing it's job.. but of course these waves can just develop further west, which in the long run makes them less apt to recurve. another wave is coming off. for the next three weeks this ought to persist, until the atlantic begins to transition into a fall configuration.
HF 0132z28august

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 28 2008 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Gustav intensifying Raymond   Thu Aug 28 2008 12:08 PM
. * * New Thread danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 28 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Gustav intensifying danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 28 2008 11:52 AM
. * * Gustav intensifying danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 28 2008 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Gustav rapidly intensifying moving SW Raymond   Thu Aug 28 2008 10:32 AM
. * * Gustav rapidly intensifying moving SW Raymond   Thu Aug 28 2008 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW cieldumort   Thu Aug 28 2008 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW Rich B   Thu Aug 28 2008 07:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW Raymond   Thu Aug 28 2008 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW scottsvb   Thu Aug 28 2008 04:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving WSW LoisCane   Thu Aug 28 2008 04:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest javlin   Thu Aug 28 2008 03:05 AM
. * * previously-currently HanKFranK   Thu Aug 28 2008 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest Clark   Wed Aug 27 2008 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest zacros   Wed Aug 27 2008 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest Clark   Wed Aug 27 2008 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest SeaMule   Wed Aug 27 2008 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest Raymond   Wed Aug 27 2008 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest WeatherNut   Wed Aug 27 2008 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest javlin   Wed Aug 27 2008 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest Raymond   Wed Aug 27 2008 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest Myles   Wed Aug 27 2008 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest Ed in Va   Wed Aug 27 2008 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest scottsvb   Wed Aug 27 2008 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest damejune2   Wed Aug 27 2008 02:32 PM

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