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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Gustav
      Thu Aug 28 2008 01:16 PM

All week I have been watching the trough dynamic in the midwest play out. One other feature however has stood out to me and does not get any talk as far as the future track of Gustav in the GOM. An upper low has tracked eastward along the border from SoCal/Mexico to now west Tx/Mexico. It still has eastward momentum and is on a pace that if it continues eastward it may be in the Bay of Campeche about the time Gustav enters the southern GOM. All steering currents presently are from the sw GOM northeasterly back toward the northern Florida peninsula. This is not a vigouous upper feature, and its effect on the steering flow ahead of it is to only enhance the northeasterly flow (unlike the ULL ahead of Hanna which will pull it NW and over the top of it for a while). In short, I am just not sold on the Texas/ LA solution to this yet, as the ridging I expected to begin in the wake of the trough passing through the midwest may not be occurring.
Comments welcome!

--------------------
doug

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* gustav gaulois Thu Aug 28 2008 01:16 PM
. * * Re: gustav craigm   Tue Aug 26 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: 95L doug   Wed Aug 27 2008 08:50 PM
. * * Re: 95L B.C.Francis   Thu Aug 28 2008 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Gustav doug   Thu Aug 28 2008 01:16 PM
. * * Re: gustav LoisCane   Mon Aug 25 2008 10:52 PM

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