Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Re: parade time
Fri Aug 29 2008 05:34 AM
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It's almost like my body is back in the swing, waking me up at 4 to take a look at the 5am updates. Geez...
Although Gus managed to hold himself together pretty well, the pressure is up to 991, which doesn't make Gus all that much stronger than Hanna. But, as soon as he clears Jamaica, we'll have to see what happens. The NHC track has shifted a little more to the west. Some of the models seem to be tracking more to the west, as well, which probably correspond to that high over the Ohio Valley. But, of course, it's still too early to tell when all of these are going to come into play. I love how the discussion says, "There is a complicated evolution to the steering currents around Gustav during the forecast period." No kidding, right? It's mentioned in the discussion, and evident from the sats, that Gustav seems to be getting fatter.
Hanna has finally increased her windspeed. but looks like a poorly organized blob on the sats. Hanna has some shear issues that don't appear to be going away very soon. But, then again, she still has plenty of time to get her act together, so you can't rule her out yet.
I definitely agree with the post earlier about the activity level of the tropics... A little too much activity for me!
An aside.... I like to look back at previous model predictions to see which model (if any) predicted the current motion. And, from that, maybe I can say that one particular model does a better job than another at forecasting one particular storm. Anyway, looking at Clark's spaghetti plot of the models, specifically the 0Z 8/28 run, every model had Gustax going north of Jamaica (things are more evident if you go further back, but I wanted to get the closest picture I could). That was forecasting like 12/24-hours out.... The current models are forecasting several days out. I don't really have a lot of confidence in the guidence at this point....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Fri Aug 29 2008 05:46 AM)
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