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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
gustav/hanna/co
      Sun Aug 31 2008 04:53 AM

first, a couple thoughts on gustav. folks in la got the message from the 2005 assault, and this time they're heading for higher ground. coastal louisiana is a deathtrap in a major hurricane. the eastern wards of new orleans are likely to be inundated again if the forecast track verifies, and a bit more deviation to the east and the chances that the city turns into a fishbowl again are enough to get people moving, hopefully. i don't think many people are dumb enough to stick around for that... the whole mass casualty event/humanitarian crisis from katrina made an impression on even the thickest holdouts. gustav should sputter for a bit while its inner core recovers from that knot of hills in western cuba it just ripped across. the whole category five peak over the central gulf is as likely as not to occur, followed by a slow spin-down as the thermodynamic profiles for the storm decrease near the coast. the nhc is definitely on the ball with this one... the devil is in the smaller scale track and intensity details. hope and pray that deviation to the left occurs in the track sooner than forecast, and that the storm moves ashore obliquely over less densely populated areas. i'm sure lafayette, new iberia, morgan city, houma, abbeville and the like have no reason to wish this on themselves... but the scale of the coming disaster can be governed by just 20 miles or so... or maybe one rung on the saffir-simpson scale.
further east hanna is plodding westward, making one of the more inconspicuous approaches that could be expected. gustav hype is letting this system slowly sneak up on the southeast coast... as forecast models have it slowly approaching throughout the new week. hanna probably won't change much in basic profile or location for the next three days... shear will keep shifting around, keeping the storm in check through mon-tue or so.. and forecast models are now showing a more amplified, less influential ridge, with a huge cut-off low off the canadian maritimes poised to set up shop early next week and slow hanna's approach. thereafter the ridge is shown breaking down more quickly, with the model solutions now edging hanna much further north than guidance had the storm just yesterday. what looked like an east florida threat now looks like a more typical jab at wilmington or cape lookout, then out to sea.. if the trends are to be bought. i'm not ready to buy anything... gustav is simple compared to hanna, in terms of forecasting. the exact evolution of the cut-off to the northeast (which will entrain energy from the active tropical waves further east), i'm suspicious about. if it amplifies that much, dips to new jersey latitude.. the sucker might just try a tropical transition. is it really going to eat away at the subtropical ridge north of hanna that much, or snatch harder at the sheared system trying to develop to the southeast? does hanna keep edging along westward or go quasi-stationary for two days near the east-central bahamas? this one is much harder to peg.
systems to the east--the feature tagged invest on the nhc imagery, with no number... that one looks much better than the one just passing the cape verdes. shear or no shear, it has more going for it right now. there's an obvious surface center, which it seems fond of ejecting/reforming.. or reabsorbing.. and the shear is wheeling around more and appears to be slackening. when this thing gets to the edge of the subtropical ridge fracture, don't be surprised if it develops in earnest as it lifts out.
further east invest 97L is a large, sprawling wave... moving over marginal waters and unlikely to develop quickly. i'm not sure which model camp to buy into--some lift it through the ridge fracture just like the others... others, notably the euro, take it pretty much straight wnw for days. there are obvious disagreements on just how amplified the blocky pattern in the atlantic will get.
gfs is turning the faucet off after the following wave or two, indicating a lull, not seeing activity in the longer ranges. the atlantic goes back to a flatter ridge with no obvious breaks. scratching my head on that one--this time of year you need widespread westerly shear to stop development on that scale. guess we'll have to see.
HF 0553z31august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 31 2008 04:53 AM
. * * Levees Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana mcgowanmc   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana mcgowanmc   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana chase 22   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana Wrong Number Bassist   Mon Sep 01 2008 05:01 AM
. * * Re: Hanna cieldumort   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Troy C   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Hanna scottsvb   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:47 AM
. * * Gustov Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Hanna flahurricane   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:37 AM
. * * Hanna Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Concern flahurricane   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Concern danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Concern Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:02 AM
. * * Concern Rasvar   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:45 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs RedingtonBeachGuy   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:17 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:54 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs flahurricane   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:44 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs pcola   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:39 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs FIREREALTY   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:21 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:03 AM
. * * Re: conflicting signs mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:52 PM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Raymond   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:51 PM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Hurikid   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:45 PM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Random Chaos   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:44 PM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Hugh   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:38 PM
. * * Re: conflicting signs Raymond   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:34 PM
. * * Re: curvature of the earth Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:30 PM
. * * Re: curvature of the earth bigpapi   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:26 PM
. * * Re: curvature of the earth berrywr   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 10:13 PM
. * * conflicting signs Raymond   Sun Aug 31 2008 09:43 PM
. * * Re: curvature of the earth Colleen A.   Sun Aug 31 2008 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 31 2008 09:27 PM
. * * curvature of the earth JulieTampa   Sun Aug 31 2008 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sun Aug 31 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West Rich B   Sun Aug 31 2008 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West hurricane expert   Sun Aug 31 2008 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West allan   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Storm Info msdejesus   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Storm Info Hugh   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Storm Info Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:00 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans Traffic Geoff   Sun Aug 31 2008 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Storm Info RevUp   Sun Aug 31 2008 06:58 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans Traffic DWard   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Storm Info danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Storm Info RU12   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:34 PM
. * * Storm Info danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:24 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans Traffic RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:07 PM
. * * New Orleans Traffic danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 31 2008 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder scottsvb   Sun Aug 31 2008 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder Random Chaos   Sun Aug 31 2008 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder Texas Cane Tracker   Sun Aug 31 2008 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder pcola   Sun Aug 31 2008 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Basic rules reminder Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: gustav/hanna/co RevUp   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:19 PM
. * * Basic rules reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 31 2008 11:43 AM
. * * Re: gustav/hanna/co berrywr   Sun Aug 31 2008 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Nagin in NOLA berrywr   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:59 AM
. * * Re: gustav/hanna/co flahurricane   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:17 AM
. * * Re: gustav/hanna/co flanewscameraman   Sun Aug 31 2008 07:04 AM
. * * gustav/hanna/co HanKFranK   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Nagin in NOLA typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Nagin in NOLA cieldumort   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:25 AM
. * * Nagin in NOLA danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 04:06 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West vineyardsaker   Sun Aug 31 2008 03:48 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Ronn   Sun Aug 31 2008 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 31 2008 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Aug 31 2008 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West FIREREALTY   Sun Aug 31 2008 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Seminolestormwatcher   Sun Aug 31 2008 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West madmumbler   Sun Aug 31 2008 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Did you notice the storm surge prediction for Gustav? mcgowanmc   Sun Aug 31 2008 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Did you notice the storm surge prediction for Gustav? Beach   Sun Aug 31 2008 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Did you notice the storm surge prediction for Gustav? MichaelA   Sun Aug 31 2008 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Did you notice the storm surge prediction for Gustav? danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Did you notice the storm surge prediction for Gustav? MichaelA   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:47 AM
. * * Did you notice the storm surge prediction for Gustav? vineyardsaker   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West WeatherNut   Sun Aug 31 2008 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Ronn   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:48 PM
. * * Re: NNW Wobble berrywr   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West watchinout   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West jf   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:26 PM
. * * NNW Wobble Beach   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Ronn   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:10 PM
. * * Re: What is your take on Hanna? native   Sat Aug 30 2008 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West jf   Sat Aug 30 2008 09:55 PM
. * * What is your take on Hanna? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 30 2008 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 30 2008 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West native   Sat Aug 30 2008 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West typhoon_tip   Sat Aug 30 2008 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West smorse22   Sat Aug 30 2008 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 30 2008 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Random Chaos   Sat Aug 30 2008 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Bloodstar   Sat Aug 30 2008 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 30 2008 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West smorse22   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Steve H1   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Eyewall Replacement cieldumort   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West pcola   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Tazmanian93   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Rich B   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West allan   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Steve H1   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West cieldumort   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Eyewall Replacement allan   Sat Aug 30 2008 05:01 PM
. * * Eyewall Replacement TheElNino1   Sat Aug 30 2008 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Steve H1   Sat Aug 30 2008 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Gustav on Radar Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 30 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Gustav on Radar danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 30 2008 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West scottsvb   Sat Aug 30 2008 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West scottsvb   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West CDMOrlando   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West cmoore   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West kromdog   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Hurikid   Sat Aug 30 2008 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West kromdog   Sat Aug 30 2008 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West B_from_NC   Sat Aug 30 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna DMFischer   Sat Aug 30 2008 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West mcgowanmc   Sat Aug 30 2008 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West Colleen A.   Sat Aug 30 2008 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West smorse22   Sat Aug 30 2008 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West scottsvb   Sat Aug 30 2008 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West scottsvb   Sat Aug 30 2008 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 30 2008 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West MichaelA   Sat Aug 30 2008 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 30 2008 12:50 PM

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