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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward
      Mon Sep 01 2008 08:43 AM

Hanna looks to have nuzzled under some of the colder cloud tops overnight, and is arguably quite a bit stronger than the last two advisories. Recon should get in there within a few hours and should the LLC still be under the cold tops at that time, it seems reasonable to expect a jump in the advisory wind speed, and possibly a sizable jump, if it is not raised sooner than that.

Gustav is doing a number, with a raggedy, and at times open eye becoming somewhat visible on IR as well as radar again. Southwest Pass had a two-minute sustained of 79 knots at an elevated measuring station at 24 meters up. Peak gust of 102 knots. Taking the gust of 117MPH into consideration at an elevation of 24 meters, even looking at all of the recon data that has come in, I'm inclined to believe that peak sustained winds somewhere in the cyclone are still about 110-115. While most of the winds within Gustav are likely well-below 90MPH sustained, given the continued very cold cloudtops bursting off and on in the IR channels, it seems reasonable enough to assume that something around 100 knots 1-min averaged could very well be mixing down to the surface somewhere in the cyclone, most possibly either just within the western eyewall, or in particular, up to 70 miles east-southeast of the eye itself, as by far most of the strongest winds have tended to remain on the eastern side of the storm, and still over water or just now coming inland.

Track-wise, it appears that Gustav may be starting to turn a little bit, now possibly leaning a touch towards the left side of northwest. This could prolong the time he spends over water, and also extend farther west the potential for storm surge, and hurricane-force winds along and near the coastline, as well as offshore. As for the surge, at this angle of approach the potential for very significant surge should be reduced some, as water will not funnel as efficiently outside of a few nooks and crannies, but will continue to represent a real threat.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 01 2008 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna JoshuaK   Tue Sep 02 2008 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna RevUp   Tue Sep 02 2008 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna Raymond   Tue Sep 02 2008 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna LoisCane   Tue Sep 02 2008 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna Raymond   Tue Sep 02 2008 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna berrywr   Tue Sep 02 2008 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic berrywr   Tue Sep 02 2008 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic scottsvb   Tue Sep 02 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic hurricane expert   Tue Sep 02 2008 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic Joe   Tue Sep 02 2008 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic BillD   Tue Sep 02 2008 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna BillD   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:50 PM
. * * Please help me make sense of Hanna vineyardsaker   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic KikiFla   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic Benny   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward jessiej   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 01 2008 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 01 2008 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward cate   Mon Sep 01 2008 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward threw-er-back   Mon Sep 01 2008 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Rich B   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward JoshuaK   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward watchinout   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Mag   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Bryan   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic shewtinstar   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward MillardDJr   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic SMOKE   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:16 PM
. * * local coverage cncguy2000   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic shewtinstar   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:07 PM
. * * Re: TD #9 LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:47 PM
. * * TD #9 Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic Hugh   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic craigm   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic craigm   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic cieldumort   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Hugh   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward SMOKE   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward cieldumort   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:43 AM

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