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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward
      Mon Sep 01 2008 03:58 PM

There is very little evidence that Hanna is going to take a more westward route than forecast. Almost all the models are clustering between a north Florida to South Carolina landfall, with a few outliers.

See:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008.png
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008_late.png

Also, per hanna, latest recon pass found 983mb central pressure (no vortex recon; purely HDOBs) and a max surface wind of between 75 and 77kts. If this slow strengthening continues (about 1-2mb drop per hour), it will hit category 2 (80 kt / ~979mb) sometime late this afternoon or early this evening.

Recon (the previous run) reported a very broad pressure and wind center. As she spins up, this will condense. Will be interesting to watch. Models only call for cat 1 to cat 2 max.

Edit: Vortex Recon finally came in. About what I said, plus: "GREATLY IMPROVED RADAR BANDING IN CENTER"

--RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 01 2008 04:00 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 01 2008 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna JoshuaK   Tue Sep 02 2008 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna RevUp   Tue Sep 02 2008 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna Raymond   Tue Sep 02 2008 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna LoisCane   Tue Sep 02 2008 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna Raymond   Tue Sep 02 2008 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna berrywr   Tue Sep 02 2008 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic berrywr   Tue Sep 02 2008 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic scottsvb   Tue Sep 02 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic hurricane expert   Tue Sep 02 2008 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic Joe   Tue Sep 02 2008 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic BillD   Tue Sep 02 2008 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna BillD   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:50 PM
. * * Please help me make sense of Hanna vineyardsaker   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic KikiFla   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic Benny   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward jessiej   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 01 2008 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Beaumont, TX   Mon Sep 01 2008 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward cate   Mon Sep 01 2008 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward threw-er-back   Mon Sep 01 2008 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Rich B   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward JoshuaK   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Random Chaos   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward watchinout   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Mag   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Joe   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Bryan   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward hurricane_run   Mon Sep 01 2008 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic shewtinstar   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward MillardDJr   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic SMOKE   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:16 PM
. * * local coverage cncguy2000   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic shewtinstar   Mon Sep 01 2008 01:07 PM
. * * Re: TD #9 LoisCane   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:47 PM
. * * TD #9 Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic Hugh   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic craigm   Mon Sep 01 2008 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic craigm   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic cieldumort   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Hugh   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Steve H1   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Colleen A.   Mon Sep 01 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward SMOKE   Mon Sep 01 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward Raymond   Mon Sep 01 2008 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward cieldumort   Mon Sep 01 2008 08:43 AM

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