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the latest advisory states Hannah has been drifting southeast today. So my question is how will this affect the track at 5:00pm?
Well, I think it may have a small impact on the new NHC forecast track as of 5:00pm. I believe that on one hand, given a slightly greater eastward componant, this could allow slightly more room for Hanna to ultimately slide just that much more east of the South Florida coastline. HOWEVER...........................
the latest 12Z EURO model guidance is now approx. 100 miles left ( west ) the 0Z run, and now places Hanna on the Florida coast ( around Vero Beach perhaps ), as opposed to keeping the storm offshore Florida altogether. This westward shift, along with a westward shift of the 12Z GFS and NOGAPS, suggests to me that the new update might suggest slow erratic motion to continue through tonight, with a slow WNW to NW motion to commence tommorrow. I would be surprised if the cone is not at least slightly adjusted west and southward. More telling due to remaining uncertainties of motion, would be a slight adjustment of the wording of the advisory. Meaning, the recent and current forecast calls for motion towards the NW, however will be curious to see if enough uncertaintly has entered the picture where NHC might just starting discussing motion being more WNW instead. This would be a little telling of a possibly increasing concern regarding impact to somewhere on the Central or S. Florida coastline.
To me, even more intriguing would be if NHC remains insistant on a NW motion to commence soon, or if they were to now indicate that little or no motion might continue, and for how long. There is no doubt to me that Hanna may well traverse well east of Florida, however models are trending more westward and I am confident that the longer Hanna remains to the southeast of Florida, the greater the risk of Hanna directly impacting somewhere on the Florida coastline due to the approaching and building W. Atlantic ridge.
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