Hey steve! I'll add my 2 cents in on what "may" be happening in the BOC.
Analysis: First of all, this system is located in a fairly favorable area for development, climatologically and conditionally. There is plenty of moisture near the system, and the sheer values aren't too high. There is a definite circulation with this system, in the mid-levels. The key for development would be for more of the deep type of convection to develop near the center. The circulation would also have to work it's way down to the lower-levels.
Positives: Fairly low wind sheer, warm water temperatures, climatology favors BOC for June devleopment, favorable conditions atmospheric conditions.
Negatives: Closeness to land, atmospheric conditions could change, for better or for worse (track is what will dictate this), nightfall is near.
Forecast: Despite the fact that recon is scheduled tommorrow, there is actually a good chance it will be canceled. This system is going to be slow in nature to do anything, including development and tracking. I find it quite likely that this system will develop on Sunday or Monday than tommorrow (if development occurs).
Chance of development on Saturday: 10%
Chance of development on Sunday: 25%
Chance of development on Monday: 25%
Chance of development on Tuesday: 10%
That was my first analysis and forecast for the 2002 hurricane season, as far as an individual system goes.
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