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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my
Wed Sep 03 2008 02:45 AM

The ultimate key for Ike is going to be how fast Hanna moves out. A continued slow movement for Hanna and Ike will catch up to the storm and will likely be directed northward in a bit of Fujiwhara-style interaction given its small size versus Hanna's large size. If Hanna starts to move northwestward soon, however, these effects are likely to be minimal. Look at the 00z model guidance for further clues on this -- the slower Hanna moves, the more poleward Ike is directed. The UKMET model has been consistent with this for many runs now and the global models, all of which have pretty good representations of Hanna, suggest a slower movement than the GFDL/HWRF hurricane models and show a tad more interaction with Ike. What will happen? What happens today will be a big clue to that.

Overnight, Ike looks to be developing an eye and is nearing hurricane intensity; Josephine's deep convection has weakened and now the storm is caught between an upper level trough to its northwest and a very large tropical wave to its east. It's so far east, though, that even if it were to somehow make it across the ocean it is at least 10 days from the mainland. Hanna is still highly sheared but with such a large circulation envelope it's not going anywhere anytime soon unless it somehow manages to slide over Hispaniola. It should ultimately end up making landfall somewhere on the SE US coast, but as noted above it's still very much an open question as to explicitly when this occurs.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Josephine Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	MikeC	Wed Sep 03 2008 02:45 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	scottsvb	Wed Sep 03 2008 10:41 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	doug	Wed Sep 03 2008 08:21 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	LoisCane	Wed Sep 03 2008 07:53 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	shewtinstar	Wed Sep 03 2008 07:38 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Raymond	Wed Sep 03 2008 03:56 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Rich B	Wed Sep 03 2008 03:32 AM
Hanna may have some characteristics that change the game today	cieldumort	Wed Sep 03 2008 03:27 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Raymond	Wed Sep 03 2008 03:05 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Clark	Wed Sep 03 2008 02:45 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	scottsvb	Wed Sep 03 2008 12:17 AM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	JonB	Tue Sep 02 2008 11:57 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	lunkerhunter	Tue Sep 02 2008 11:06 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	RevUp	Tue Sep 02 2008 10:54 PM
Re: can two systems actually collide?	lunkerhunter	Tue Sep 02 2008 10:53 PM
Re: can two systems actually collide?	Myles	Tue Sep 02 2008 09:35 PM
Re: can two systems actually collide?	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:58 PM
can two systems actually collide?	vineyardsaker	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:53 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Rasvar	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:46 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	shewtinstar	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:33 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	LoisCane	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:15 PM
Re: Question on 5pm track	engicedave	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:08 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Bev	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:07 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Hugh	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:59 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:57 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Tammster	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:51 PM
Re: Question on 5pm track	Clark	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:50 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Clark	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:47 PM
Question on 5pm track	Scott3294	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:43 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Hugh	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:43 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	LoisCane	Tue Sep 02 2008 07:27 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Tammster	Tue Sep 02 2008 06:34 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	craigm	Tue Sep 02 2008 06:05 PM
Re: Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	vineyardsaker	Tue Sep 02 2008 05:14 PM
Hanna, Ike, Josephine - oh my	Clark	Tue Sep 02 2008 04:48 PM
Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed	Raymond	Tue Sep 02 2008 03:48 PM
Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed	Thunderbird12	Tue Sep 02 2008 02:36 PM
Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed	craigm	Tue Sep 02 2008 02:32 PM
Re: Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed	craigm	Tue Sep 02 2008 02:22 PM
Big Surprise!!!-Center of Hannah totally reformed	Raymond	Tue Sep 02 2008 02:19 PM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	native	Tue Sep 02 2008 12:50 PM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	LoisCane	Tue Sep 02 2008 12:13 PM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	Steve H1	Tue Sep 02 2008 12:00 PM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	Lee-Delray	Tue Sep 02 2008 11:49 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	scottsvb	Tue Sep 02 2008 11:22 AM
Josephine forms	ftlaudbob	Tue Sep 02 2008 11:20 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	craigm	Tue Sep 02 2008 11:05 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	PFSThunder	Tue Sep 02 2008 10:49 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	Patrick99	Tue Sep 02 2008 10:37 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	LoisCane	Tue Sep 02 2008 10:13 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	weathernet	Tue Sep 02 2008 09:54 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	Random Chaos	Tue Sep 02 2008 09:45 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	Raymond	Tue Sep 02 2008 09:24 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	craigm	Tue Sep 02 2008 09:18 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	MikeC	Tue Sep 02 2008 09:08 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:56 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	John C	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:52 AM
Re: TD#10 Forms in East Atlantic, Hanna Slowly Drifting, Ike Moving, West, Gustav Over Land	metwannabe	Tue Sep 02 2008 08:47 AM

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