Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: I am missing you
Thu Sep 04 2008 01:02 PM
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As you can see from the dialogue in this thread, some folks enjoy an uncluttered site while others enjoy a more unstructured site - and its often difficult to find the proper balance, since either approach will drive away some users - and that includes Mets that take the time to share their insight. As a partial solution, years ago I tried to develop the Storm Forum as a place to go for serious no-nonsense discussions on active tropical systems. Sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't. It is not, however, a Forum just for Mets - its simply a forum for good analysis and conclusion.
When a storm threatens Florida, I still need to do the 'preparation' things that everybody else does - and the aftermath cleanup that follows. In my case, my involvement with local Emergency Management can severely limit my on-site time if the storm could affect Florida, but I do find the time to send out a few emails to the site officials and often these get reposted on the site - which is fine. Here is one that I sent out during the 'Hanna' event - thought that you might enjoy it.
"As soon as I figure out what Hanna is going to do, will somebody please let me know! A few of you have asked if I had any ideas about Hanna, and I do, but most of them are not fit to print. However, I am fairly certain that Tropical Storm Hanna will eventually take a northwesterly track (or west northwesterly, or north northwesterly or northerly or hang around the southern Bahamas for a few more hours - or days- or weeks - or years, or all of the above). I'm pretty sure that I can rule out none of the above.
Actually, Tropical Storm Hanna has just completed a cyclonic loop and is now located about where she was 36 hours ago. She has maximum sustained winds of 55mph and a central pressure of 994MB (29.35"). Earlier today Hanna was moving to the north northwest at 8 knots, however she has now stalled - again. I would expect Hanna to take a northwest track for the next 24 hours - perhaps even west northwest at times - and then a more north northwest track offshore the east Florida coast. There are some indications that Hanna may be trying to redevelop a new center a little further north of her current position in the Caicos Islands - but that is a wait-and-see situation since this morning Hanna had three distinct centers of cyclonic circulation.
Significant weather impacts from Hanna are most likely in east central Florida from Thursday afternoon/evening through Friday morning. Until Hanna develops a distinct center - and that center starts to move (any direction will do), the extent of those weather impacts remain largely unknown. If the track bends a little more to the west northwest before resuming a northwest motion, the storm will come closer to the coast and, since Hanna is expected to regain hurricane strength by the time that it gets closer to east central Florida, the impacts of wind and rainfall will be greater. If she takes a more north northwesterly track she will remain further offshore and the impacts will be minor. She does have a large convective circulation so additional intensification seems likely. At the moment, tropical storm conditions are still possible along the east central Florida coast and immediately inland from the coast (west to the I-95 area). Rainfall could be about an inch if she stays further offshore or up to four inches if she passes closer to the shore - and its still too early to give a good definition to the windfield but I've been working on it (for about three days - and nights). At the moment it does look like Hanna could make landfall somewhere along the South Carolina coast on Friday evening - and eventually pass over or near southeastern New England on Sunday as an extratropical gale.
Hanna's partner in mayhem, Tropical Storm Ike, is in the central Atlantic near 21.4N 52.0W at 2PM and moving to the west northwest at 17mph with sustained winds of 70mph gusting to 85mph. Ike should become a hurricane later today or this evening and start a more westerly movement at 18-20mph in about 24 hours. Ike has a good chance to eventually grow into a major hurricane and could pose a threat to Florida - probably next Tuesday - so my advice is to keep a close watch on this one. He is just too far away right now to define exactly what area Ike might threaten - but it is highly unlikely that Ike will remain a 'fish' storm in the open waters of the Atlantic.
Finally there is Tropical Storm Josephine - way out there somewhere west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with sustained winds of 65mph. Josephine is moving to the west northwest at 12mph and will probably remain at sea - but there is plenty of time to watch this one (especially if we still have electricity - don't get excited - just a little tired weatherman humor).
Stayed tuned for any late-breaking news on your least favorite summertime drama - a.k.a. the 'Parade of Storms'. All humor aside, Hanna is still a bit of a question mark for our area - and Ike is likely to be a serious problem for somebody. I'll keep you posted."
Cheers,
ED
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