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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
Rem Alberto
ADV#13 10:00 pm EDT
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely
      Sat Sep 06 2008 09:05 AM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

IKE...
A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECMWF LOOKING AT POTENTIAL VORTICITY SHOWS
A TYPICAL HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TOO TILTED/SHALLOW AT INITIALIZATION...WHICH DOES NOT IMPROVE APPRECIABLY EVEN 108 HOURS INTO ITS FORECAST. THIS DEPTH PROBLEM COULD IMPACT ITS TRACK LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

IKE...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD SEEN DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST 36 HOURS OF RUNS...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE PROBLEMS WITH ITS INITIAL DEPTH NOTED IN THE INITIALIZATION SECTION ABOVE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

IKE...
THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD BE PREFERRED DUE TO
ITS BETTER CONTINUITY AND THE GFS/NAM TRENDS TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS PROBLEMS WITH ITS INITIALIZATION THAT COULD BE CONTAMINATING ITS FORECAST SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FASTER RENDITION OF THE 00Z CANADIAN...OR NORTHWARD VERSION OF THE FS/ECMWF...WOULD BE MOST SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING NHC FORECAST

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 06 2008 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Drops dolfinatic   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:04 AM
. * * Re: Drops Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Drops Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Drops Genesis   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Drops LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Drops LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Drops ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Drops ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Drops Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Drops stormchazer   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Drops LoisCane   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Drops BillD   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Drops CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Drops doug   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Drops kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Drops danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Drops ftlaudbob   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Drops BillD   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Drops RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Drops Random Chaos   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Drops Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Drops kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Drops smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Drops flahurricane   Sat Sep 06 2008 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Drops WPB Ken   Sat Sep 06 2008 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Drops smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Drops Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Drops Texas Cane Tracker   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:40 PM
. * * Re: OOPS Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:34 PM
. * * OOPS danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Drops JulieTampa   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Drops Mag   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Drops pcbjr   Sat Sep 06 2008 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Drops Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:35 PM
. * * Drops danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest KJJAXFL   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:20 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Sheeper   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Pcola DWard   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Terra   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:23 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! pcola   Sat Sep 06 2008 02:12 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:53 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:44 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:20 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:18 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:11 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! hurricane expert   Sat Sep 06 2008 01:08 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:45 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! scottsvb   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:42 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans again?! danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:19 PM
. * * New Orleans again?! vineyardsaker   Sat Sep 06 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely scottsvb   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Colleen A.   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely pcola   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely RevUp   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely madmumbler   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely scottsvb   Sat Sep 06 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Lee-Delray   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely kromdog   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest shewtinstar   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Hugh   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely GLT   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Models CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely GLT   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely smorse22   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:16 AM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely GLT   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely Raymond   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely CDMOrlando   Sat Sep 06 2008 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely ftlaudbob   Sat Sep 06 2008 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely pcola   Sat Sep 06 2008 08:23 AM

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