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The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...

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There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.

But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.

If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.

1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.

2. Dennis was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.

Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, Charley, Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.

Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,

A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.

So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.

It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.

Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.

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As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613

He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.

Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur

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