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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Wind Speeds and Category
      Mon Sep 08 2008 04:51 AM

GFS 0Z run up to 120hrs is alittle east (50-100 miles) from the 18z run. After that, it takes IKE northeast towards a landfall next Sunday around Mobile Al-Pensacola Fl. First off (like I always preach) anything more than even 3 days out is not even a 50% chance it will come true, and after 5 days its less than 25%. The reason its slightly east in the near term is cause its alittle slower with a slightly weaker midlevel-ridging and a faster flow across the continental U.S. The longer range shows a stronger front than the 18z and also the cold front further east.
Like I said earlier today, I suspect IKE to slow down due to the first trough swinging by and missing him in a day or 2. This will create a weakness in the ridge and he may meander (like Hanna) until the next trough (as shown in the 0z run) picks him up. Question is How Fast Will The Trough Come Down? How Strong Will The Trough Be? and Finally, Where is IKE Located When He Hits The Weakness? 88W? 86W? The 3 Questions for the Extended Range, but first lets focus on the nowcast as model runs change, but focus mainly on the GFDL and GFS!

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 08 2008 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Storm Cooper   Mon Sep 08 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Raymond   Mon Sep 08 2008 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 07:19 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category cate   Mon Sep 08 2008 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Rasvar   Mon Sep 08 2008 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category scottsvb   Mon Sep 08 2008 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical cieldumort   Mon Sep 08 2008 04:40 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category HCW   Mon Sep 08 2008 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Hugh   Mon Sep 08 2008 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2008 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Hugh   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:36 AM
. * * Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Rasvar   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical ftlaudbob   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:52 AM
. * * Re: why this is a possible problem Hugh   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:11 AM
. * * Re: why this is a possible problem Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:06 AM
. * * why this is a possible problem LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Rasvar   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical smorse22   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical kromdog   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical JonB   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Colleen A.   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical JonB   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical doug   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical jf   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Myles   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical chase 22   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical jf   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical AdvAutoBob   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Bev   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical rmiller1031   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical hurricane expert   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical pcola   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical CDMOrlando   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical RU12   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical vineyardsaker   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical RU12   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical smorse22   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:55 PM

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