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Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)
TS Alberto
ADV#11 10:00 am EDT
22.3N 97.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 993mb
Moving:
W at 13 mph
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wind Speeds and Category
      Mon Sep 08 2008 07:15 AM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

VALID SEP 08/0000 UTC THRU SEP 11/1200 UTC

IKE...
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH IKE OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS...THOUGH MOST OF THE TREND HAS BEEN SINCE ITS 07/12Z RUN.
SINCE ITS 12Z RUN...IT HAS SLOWED IKES FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH VARIATION SEEN OVER ITS
PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...DUE TO CHANGES IN SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
IKE...
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH IKES
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE WELL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SEEN IN THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM 12Z...THEY LIE AT THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING SEEN IN THEIR SURFACE LOW
POSITIONS. WHILE THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE FOR A RECURVING
TROPICAL CYCLONE /WORKING OUT WELL FOR GUSTAVS INLAND TRACK AND
HANNA ONCE IT FINALLY MOVED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/...IT HAS NOT BEEN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FORECASTING IKE AS
IT HAS MAINTAINED A MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAN ANTICIPATED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SPREAD. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS ON IKE FROM NHC FOR ITS FUTURE TRACK.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 08 2008 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Storm Cooper   Mon Sep 08 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Raymond   Mon Sep 08 2008 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 07:19 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category cate   Mon Sep 08 2008 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Rasvar   Mon Sep 08 2008 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category scottsvb   Mon Sep 08 2008 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical cieldumort   Mon Sep 08 2008 04:40 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category HCW   Mon Sep 08 2008 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Hugh   Mon Sep 08 2008 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2008 02:33 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Hugh   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:36 AM
. * * Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Rasvar   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical ftlaudbob   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:52 AM
. * * Re: why this is a possible problem Hugh   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:11 AM
. * * Re: why this is a possible problem Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:06 AM
. * * why this is a possible problem LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Rasvar   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical smorse22   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical kromdog   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical JonB   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Colleen A.   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical JonB   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical doug   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical jf   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Myles   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical chase 22   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical jf   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical AdvAutoBob   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Bev   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical rmiller1031   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical hurricane expert   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical pcola   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical CDMOrlando   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical RU12   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical vineyardsaker   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical RU12   Sun Sep 07 2008 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical smorse22   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:55 PM

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