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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Wind Speeds and Category
      Mon Sep 08 2008 04:41 AM

Quote:

This isn´t the point to worry too much about the US landfall, because modell shifts are still huge and the whole of the northern US gulf coast is under the gun.



I agree....really, not much if any at all of the gulf coast is in the clear yet.

Part of the Area Forecast Discussion out of Tallahassee this AM....

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...THIS FCST PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IKE. INITIALLY,
THE 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING IKE WNWWD
INTO THE SERN GOMEX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WRN PORTION
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
GENERAL NWWD TRACK THROUGH THE CNTRL GOMEX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
TOWARD THE TX/LA COASTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z GFS
WHICH STALLS IKE SOUTH OF THE LA COAST, THEN LIFTS IT NEWD BY A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAN WHAT THE OTHER MODELS ARE
INDICATING, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST.
REGARDLESS, ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY IKE AS IT SPENDS
SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE NHC FCST
TRACK. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE GFS` WINDS AND SEAS, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN IKE`S INTENSITY AND SIZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH CUBA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERNED, WILL LEAN
CLOSE TO THE GRIDDED MOS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IKE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Note that the last ECMWF takes Ike near the Texas/Mexico border.

ECMWF

Check out the link below. I don't recall seeing it here but may be wrong. It has a lot information compiled in different format....you may like it.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Sep 08 2008 05:52 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 08 2008 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Random Chaos   Mon Sep 08 2008 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Storm Cooper   Mon Sep 08 2008 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Raymond   Mon Sep 08 2008 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 03:19 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2008 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category cate   Mon Sep 08 2008 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Rasvar   Mon Sep 08 2008 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category scottsvb   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical cieldumort   Mon Sep 08 2008 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category HCW   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Random Chaos   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Wind Speeds and Category Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:36 PM
. * * Wind Speeds and Category danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Rasvar   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical ftlaudbob   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:52 PM
. * * Re: why this is a possible problem Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:11 PM
. * * Re: why this is a possible problem Random Chaos   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:06 PM
. * * why this is a possible problem LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Rasvar   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical smorse22   Sun Sep 07 2008 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical kromdog   Sun Sep 07 2008 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical JonB   Sun Sep 07 2008 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Colleen A.   Sun Sep 07 2008 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical JonB   Sun Sep 07 2008 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical doug   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical jf   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Myles   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical chase 22   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical jf   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical AdvAutoBob   Sun Sep 07 2008 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Bev   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical rmiller1031   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Raymond   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical hurricane expert   Sun Sep 07 2008 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical pcola   Sun Sep 07 2008 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical CDMOrlando   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical flahurricane   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical RU12   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical vineyardsaker   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical Hugh   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical RU12   Sun Sep 07 2008 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Sep 07 2008 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical smorse22   Sun Sep 07 2008 08:55 AM

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