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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: damage predictions
      Tue Sep 09 2008 03:09 AM

In a way, your question gets to another topic of discussion I have long advocated: Replacing the Saffir-Simpson scale with either a major overhaul, or something entirely new. I have my own share of ideas regarding this, and it has everything to do with IMPACT forecasting, rather than an almost myopic focus on maximum sustained wind speed (which occurs when using Saffir-Simpson).

You are right to put your finger on the crux of the problem: Currently, public forecasts (which are based on getting word of an expected Saffir-Simpson level out) by its very nature, focuses not on impact, but on some really rather arcane rating based on some core of wind that is unlikely to occur in roughly 99% of the total affected area.

For impact forecasts, I have long appreciated TWC. They truly *get it*. Leading up to most significant landfalling tropical cyclones, Dr. Lyons typically creates an impact forecast for "real people," if you will. Four of the key components of his forecasts cover:

Rain/Flooding potential
Wind damage potential
Wave threat potential
Storm surge potential

and are updated to reflect what is going on and what is expected.

You can read more about what Dr. Lyons has had to say about this subject here.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* damage predictions gsgs Tue Sep 09 2008 03:09 AM
. * * Re: damage predictions Clark   Mon Sep 08 2008 05:22 PM
. * * Re: damage predictions gsgs   Tue Sep 09 2008 02:34 AM
. * * Re: damage predictions cieldumort   Tue Sep 09 2008 03:09 AM
. * * Re: damage predictions gsgs   Tue Sep 09 2008 05:03 AM
. * * Re: damage predictions cieldumort   Tue Sep 09 2008 09:20 PM

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