93L Forum - FLHurricane.com

well here we go again. ill warm my model plots and wind current products up. the intensity plots have it as a cat 1 hurricane 96 hours from now. if you recall 91L the intensity didnt have it even as a tropical storm for quite some time. reason i say this is because the intensity model plots are calling for this thing to be a decent storm not to far out which means theres a good percentage it will fire up to something. plus the upper level low is weak if not gone and so is all the garbage storms hanging out in the atlantic shearing everything apart. im not too convinced (ever) of the model plots projecting any path while it is stil a wave, id rather wait till its a depression before thinking about where it is going to go.

Wind Steering Product: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

as you can see, there is a lot of room for this thing to go wherever it wants to at the current time.

GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008092006&field=850mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation

as you can see by gfs model prediction, they have the thing recurving NW N NE ENE barely scraping the florida state. however, note the formation of what looks to be a decent storm brewing up and moving west.

GOES-E Project Science: http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latest.jpg

make sure you view the image in full size.

CLARK Intensity Plots: http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clarki11latest.png

note 96 hours out the estimated intensity of a cat 1 hurricane. 3 out of the 16 models have it pointing as a cat 1 96 hours out. 7 out of the 16 models have it as a tropical storm 48 hours out.

we will have to wait and see. i hope what i have posted will give everyone a good idea of whats currently going on with this thing.

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