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Invest 95L likely to form into a storm or depression later today (90/90) next name is Beryl. Windward Caribbean Islands need to watch very closely. 94L at 30% chance, a new area east of 95L has a 20% chance to develop.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

danielw
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version
Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1217 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

.UPDATE...DISTURBED WEATHER AFFECTING THE NE CARIB REGION THE PAST
24 HOURS OR SO AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SW TO NE AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
AND OVAL IN SHAPE... WITH STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS INVOF 17N 66.3W.

THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED SSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... BUT WITH
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NOW SUGGESTING A MORE NE MOTION AND
ELONGATION OF THE RAINBANDS THAT WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THIS
APPARENT LOW.
TUTT LOW TO THE NNW OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIFTING SLOWLY NW AND ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO RELAX... AND BANDING ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUS
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ON ITS WAY TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON
STLT SIGNALS AND DOPPLER WINDS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT THE HURRICANE RECON FLIGHT FINDS 35 KNOT WINDS AT 5-8K FT
BETWEEN SE PUERTO RICO AND ST CROIX. REGARDLESS OF WIND
STRENGTH... THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE E AND SE SECTIONS OF PR AND FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT N FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THIS ELONGATED
TROUGHING REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE... AND MID
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING INTO SE CARIB UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH OR LOW MAY THEN LINGER ACROSS THE ATLC WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY... AND COULD
PROLONG THIS RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THUS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sorry about the length... lots of info.~danielw

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	MikeC	Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	metwannabe	Wed Sep 24 2008 07:51 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Wed Sep 24 2008 05:11 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	berrywr	Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	berrywr	Wed Sep 24 2008 03:00 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	berrywr	Wed Sep 24 2008 02:52 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	berrywr	Wed Sep 24 2008 01:37 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Tue Sep 23 2008 01:27 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	LoisCane	Tue Sep 23 2008 12:58 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	scottsvb	Tue Sep 23 2008 12:04 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Tue Sep 23 2008 08:58 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 23 2008 08:43 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	berrywr	Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM
Storms' Future Movement	berrywr	Tue Sep 23 2008 06:31 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	LoisCane	Mon Sep 22 2008 07:53 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	metwannabe	Mon Sep 22 2008 07:48 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Mon Sep 22 2008 04:09 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Thunderbird12	Mon Sep 22 2008 02:06 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Mon Sep 22 2008 10:59 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	ftlaudbob	Mon Sep 22 2008 10:08 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Mon Sep 22 2008 09:39 AM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	danielw	Sun Sep 21 2008 11:46 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	LoisCane	Sun Sep 21 2008 11:35 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	metwannabe	Sun Sep 21 2008 09:14 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	M.A.	Sun Sep 21 2008 08:19 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Ed in Va	Sun Sep 21 2008 07:10 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Sun Sep 21 2008 05:46 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	BillD	Sun Sep 21 2008 05:39 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Ed in Va	Sun Sep 21 2008 03:01 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	Raymond	Sun Sep 21 2008 02:54 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	k___g	Sun Sep 21 2008 02:37 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	Hurikid	Sun Sep 21 2008 02:28 PM
San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version	danielw	Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	LoisCane	Sun Sep 21 2008 12:42 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	Hugh	Sun Sep 21 2008 11:06 AM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	LoisCane	Sun Sep 21 2008 11:01 AM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	Hugh	Sun Sep 21 2008 10:49 AM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	Rich B	Sun Sep 21 2008 07:50 AM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	danielw	Sun Sep 21 2008 07:28 AM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	Ed Dunham	Sat Sep 20 2008 07:14 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	k___g	Sat Sep 20 2008 02:36 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	ltpat228	Sat Sep 20 2008 01:50 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	cosmicstorm	Sat Sep 20 2008 01:16 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	KikiFla	Sat Sep 20 2008 12:30 PM
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again	lawgator	Sat Sep 20 2008 11:17 AM

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