CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Hagupit Update: Eyewall Replacement Complete, Brushing Hong Kong
Tue Sep 23 2008 08:34 AM
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Whoa! What a difference a microwave image can make! Compare this recent one with the previous 2 microwave passages from the 2 previous posts ...
It would appear, IMHO and to my partially-trained-eyes, that Typhoon Hagupit has, indeed, completed an eyewall replacement cycle.
I'm not sure if the max sustained winds increased or decreased due to the eyewall replacement, (at least in the short-term), but one thing is certain: Hagupit is clearly now a more organized and very dangerous typhoon.
And, since the cyclone is so large in extent, (like Ike) with a large radius of maximum winds, the effected areas will extend well beyond the 'skinny black line' of the centers' exact track.
Unfortunatally, the cyclone is headed for a large 'blind bay' created by a peninsula extending down from SE mainland China, which will tend to 'corral' the storm surge generated during landfall, exaserbating the threat to lives and property along the coastline to the right of it's projected trek.
And where the eyewall and storm center cross the ragged coastline, it's sure to cause major problems and suffering for those poor folks in it's path. I fear for the bad news coming out of mainland China in the coming days.
A hint of good news is that, the now re-developed eyewall (and presumably it's strongest winds) will just brush Hong Kong, and not pass directly over the city, as previously surmised. But this is still not out-of-the-question.
And it's still too soon to see how the city, and especially it's harbor, will fare from Hagupit's nearby passage. It seems the storm surge is the greatest concern now. I assume the city is inured from centuries of cyclone passages. 
More imagery and updates coming soon. Anyone have any luck with radar imagery?
Edited by CoconutCandy (Tue Sep 23 2008 08:43 AM)
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