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Invest 95L likely to form into a storm or depression later today (90/90) next name is Beryl. Windward Caribbean Islands need to watch very closely. 94L at 30% chance, a new area east of 95L has a 20% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version
      Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM

It's not unusual for developing tropical systems to have multiple centers or vortices at the surface and develop near and under deep convection. As for SC, the answer is no. This low will be extratropical from the word go. There has been some discussion that a few days down the road it may develop sub-tropical or hybrid characteristics, but it is not forecasted to remain over water and over water enough time. It takes several days for extratropical lows to acquire tropical characteristics; why? Extratropical lows are cold core and deepen via baroclinic processes; differences in temperatures in air masses. Tropical lows are warm core and deepen is a pretty simple deal here, the ocean temperature. Extratropical lows require upper air support to sustain them. Initially tropical systems begin shallow; they work their way from bottom up. Now if a extratropical low gets stranded and stays out over water for awhile, it can lose it's cold core and become warm, then you're in business.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version metwannabe   Wed Sep 24 2008 07:51 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Wed Sep 24 2008 05:11 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 03:00 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 02:52 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Wed Sep 24 2008 01:37 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Tue Sep 23 2008 01:27 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version LoisCane   Tue Sep 23 2008 12:58 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version scottsvb   Tue Sep 23 2008 12:04 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Tue Sep 23 2008 08:58 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Ed in Va   Tue Sep 23 2008 08:43 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version berrywr   Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM
. * * Storms' Future Movement berrywr   Tue Sep 23 2008 06:31 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version LoisCane   Mon Sep 22 2008 07:53 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version metwannabe   Mon Sep 22 2008 07:48 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Mon Sep 22 2008 04:09 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Thunderbird12   Mon Sep 22 2008 02:06 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Mon Sep 22 2008 10:59 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version ftlaudbob   Mon Sep 22 2008 10:08 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Mon Sep 22 2008 09:39 AM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:35 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version metwannabe   Sun Sep 21 2008 09:14 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version M.A.   Sun Sep 21 2008 08:19 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Ed in Va   Sun Sep 21 2008 07:10 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Sun Sep 21 2008 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again BillD   Sun Sep 21 2008 05:39 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Ed in Va   Sun Sep 21 2008 03:01 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version Raymond   Sun Sep 21 2008 02:54 PM
. * * Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version k___g   Sun Sep 21 2008 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Hurikid   Sun Sep 21 2008 02:28 PM
. * * San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2008 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Hugh   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again LoisCane   Sun Sep 21 2008 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Hugh   Sun Sep 21 2008 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Rich B   Sun Sep 21 2008 07:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 21 2008 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 20 2008 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again k___g   Sat Sep 20 2008 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again ltpat228   Sat Sep 20 2008 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again cosmicstorm   Sat Sep 20 2008 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again KikiFla   Sat Sep 20 2008 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again lawgator   Sat Sep 20 2008 11:17 AM

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