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Invest 95L is now being tracked in the central Atlantic, with a 40% chance to develop and very strong model support. Those in the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean should watch it closely Sunday/Monday. 94L at 20% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: definitions
      Thu Sep 25 2008 09:17 AM

It´s time for at least TD 11 or even TS Kyle instead of 93 L. The system gets better defined around the core. There is also enough of a LLC at the western side of the convection and recon found recently SFMR surface winds up to 39 kt. The strom is sheared and also has to fight with dryer air from the west. I expect, that NHC starts warnings on this one with the next update.
Another important thing about extratropical/tropical storm is, that the extratropical are cold in the core and the tropical are warm in the core. Warm waters below a extratropical system and undisturbed circumstnces help extratropical systems to transition to a tropical system. This needs time, usually 2-3 days, somtimes a bit faster. The conditions for 94 L to transition into a (sub)tropical system aren´t this good, because, it´s running out of time and has to fight with very dry air around the center. But as said in th NHC warnings, it doesn´t matter much, because it´s a powerful storm in any case.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Kyle Forms North of the Caribbean. MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 25 2008 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Kyle Forms North of the Caribbean. scottsvb   Mon Sep 29 2008 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Kyle Forms North of the Caribbean. blizzardnut   Sat Sep 27 2008 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Trying to Organize ... 94L Almost Tropical MissBecky   Sat Sep 27 2008 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Trying to Organize ... 94L Almost Tropical Hugh   Sat Sep 27 2008 01:50 PM
. * * Kyle Thunderbird12   Sat Sep 27 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Trying to Organize ... 94L Almost Tropical scottsvb   Fri Sep 26 2008 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Trying to Organize ... 94L Almost Tropical Raymond   Fri Sep 26 2008 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Trying to Organize ... 94L Almost Tropical metwannabe   Thu Sep 25 2008 08:11 PM
. * * Trying to Organize ... 94L Almost Tropical CoconutCandy   Thu Sep 25 2008 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas metwannabe   Thu Sep 25 2008 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 25 2008 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 25 2008 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas sailor   Thu Sep 25 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 25 2008 04:06 PM
. * * What's in a Name? A Warm Core !! CoconutCandy   Thu Sep 25 2008 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Rich B   Thu Sep 25 2008 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Thunderbird12   Thu Sep 25 2008 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Raymond   Thu Sep 25 2008 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Ed in Va   Thu Sep 25 2008 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas metwannabe   Thu Sep 25 2008 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas cieldumort   Thu Sep 25 2008 10:49 AM
. * * Re: definitions Raymond   Thu Sep 25 2008 09:17 AM
. * * Re: definitions Random Chaos   Thu Sep 25 2008 08:26 AM
. * * definitions vineyardsaker   Wed Sep 24 2008 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Hugh   Wed Sep 24 2008 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2008 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas cieldumort   Wed Sep 24 2008 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Bloodstar   Wed Sep 24 2008 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas metwannabe   Wed Sep 24 2008 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas LoisCane   Wed Sep 24 2008 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Marknole   Wed Sep 24 2008 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas Raymond   Wed Sep 24 2008 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas metwannabe   Wed Sep 24 2008 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Watching Disturbance off the Carolinas metwannabe   Wed Sep 24 2008 09:09 AM

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