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#Beryl forms in the Central Atlantic and forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend, Hurricane and Tropical watches for some of the Windwards likely issued tomorrow.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#3 10:00 am EDT
9.8N 45.5W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2331
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: October in the tropics
      Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM

Very helpful that recon was able to fly Marco. It is pretty clear that Marco probably became a depression while still largely over land, and began rapidly intensifying as soon as it had completely pulled out over water. Teeny-tiny windfield, and very easy to miss the max winds by just remote sensing tools, and area buoy and ship reports.

Marco remains in a fairly favorable environment. Given its small size and likely continuation of at least a fairly favorable environment until landfall, continued intensification looks entirely possible. I might guess Marco has a decent chance of pulling an overnight surprise, a la Lorenzo and Humberto (2007).


On the other hand, as a very small tropical cyclone, Marco remains at the whim of any twist or turn of the upper-level winds, and as of this edit, there appears to be some increasing southwesterly shear interrupting things a bit more.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 06 2008 08:24 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Marco Forms in Bay of Campeche, moving Generally West MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM
. * * Re: October in the tropics cieldumort   Mon Oct 06 2008 11:41 PM
. * * Re: October in the tropics LoisCane   Mon Oct 06 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: October in the tropics cieldumort   Mon Oct 06 2008 06:01 PM
. * * Re: October in the tropics Rich B   Mon Oct 06 2008 05:06 PM
. * * Re: October in the tropics cieldumort   Mon Oct 06 2008 10:51 AM

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