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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today
      Sun Oct 12 2008 02:04 PM

97L has maintained a very well-organized surface low for at least 12 hours now. Upper level winds continue to fan convection, displacing it to within the eastern half of the cyclone. Given 97L's tenacity, it is possible, if not likely, that maximum sustained winds at the surface are already blowing at or above 35 knots.

Upper-level winds are not expected to improve any time soon. In fact, they may even become more hostile in the near-term. There is a chance that deeper convection can maintain closer to the coc long enough to begin the process of deflecting some of this westerly shear. Unfortunately for this cyclone, it is still stair-stepping its way to the northwest, and with every westerly jog (as has been the case the past few hours) it encounters more westerly shear as it travels into and against the prevailing winds in the mid to upper-levels.

All discounts aside, NHC may begin issuing advisories on a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time today, for a sheared, but otherwise well-developed, tropical cyclone.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Nana Forms in Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Sun Oct 12 2008 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 98L Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 13 2008 10:05 AM
. * * 98L danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 13 2008 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today cieldumort   Sun Oct 12 2008 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today MichaelA   Sun Oct 12 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today cieldumort   Sun Oct 12 2008 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today cieldumort   Sun Oct 12 2008 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today weathernet   Sun Oct 12 2008 01:18 PM
. * * 98L Just Out On Navy Site ltpat228   Sat Oct 11 2008 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today cieldumort   Sat Oct 11 2008 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today MichaelA   Sat Oct 11 2008 12:54 PM

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