Well it certainly does appear that 98L is a borderline T.D. this morning. Early vis. satellite depicts a circulation at some level at or just above the surface, at about 15N and just west of the latest burst of convection. This would place the center near or just east of 70W, which I find interesting in that few if any of the models took this system as far west as 70 degrees. Given any increased data from recon later today, assuming that 98L will have deepened and tagged as a T.D., it will be curious to see if there will be any further divergence in the models with regards to future motion.
Other than climotology ( and perhaps the shallow BAM ), all models continue to want to "whiplash" this system back towards the NNE to NE ( near or perhaps just west of P.R. ). Given the anticipated deepening with somewhat lighter shear and more anticyclonic upper air, it would stand to reason that whatever "pull" is expected to occur from the downstream flow caused by a deepening and S.W. retrograding mid Atlantic cutoff low, MAY start to impart such a northward motion by perhaps tonight. This all said, the center of 98L has thus far continued to basically drift westward during the last 36 hours, and the only mystery to me is whether there exists much or any easterly steering component at the 500mb-850mb level. Best guess is that the models are more or less spot on, at least with regards to eventual motion, as whatever ridging that might exist over the S.E. Conus and Western Greater Antilles, must not quite extend as far east as 70W longitude. Though unlikely, a continued West to WNW track to perhaps 73/74W, might provide ample distance from the progged mid level low to allow a slow continued motion towards the W. Caribbean, however its current slow motion at the moment would seem to make this unlikely at the time.
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