cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch
Tue Oct 14 2008 01:27 AM
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The tropical Atlantic has turned back on very much according to climatology, in that we are hitting the October secondary-maximum that is often seen before the usual long goodnight into winter weather. This climatological upswing is related to a substantial increase in thunderstorm activity associated with increased basin-wide instability. However, unlike September, shear is much more pronounced over a much larger area. This environment tends to be supportive of smaller, weaker and shorter-lived systems, and so far, this is about what we have been seeing.
TD-15 looks to be caught in a cull region of very weak steering currents. Even though models and the official forecast seem to insist on sending it off to the northeast, if its current erratic drifting continues as the trough to its north hesitates on diving much farther south, 15 could become quite a bit more landlocked in the Caribbean than advertised, and could eventually begin following 99L to the west-northwest. Definitely a number to watch for all with interests in the Caribbean, eastern Mexico, central America, and possibly even the southern United States. Not a whole lot holding this one back from strengthening, either, and things could even become much more interesting if the upper-level trof opens up an outflow channel to 15's northeast the next few days.
99L is another upgrade just waiting to happen. The TUTT scooting off to its northwest should continue to pull this deepening incipient tropical cyclone either into or around central America, eventually leaving open the door for the Yucatan to eastern Mexico, and, perhaps, some risk for the southern U.S. Several days out still making the odds of this all a bit clouded. Intensity-wise, upper-level conditions are beyond superb, and so, despite its size, 99L has an environment very favorable for some rapid intensification upside surprises. Its one single potential impediment to such rapid intensification is proximity to and interaction with land.
Nana has almost become nada, leaving the door open for 90L to become more dominant. 90L is one of those smaller satellite systems that, had it been closer to home, recon certainly would have flown and likely found to be another stunning micro-tropical cyclone, the incredible second of this season that has set several all-time records in the Atlantic basin, and now even at least one if not two global records, as well. Maybe reanalysis will do 90L that justice, even if it does get upgraded Tuesday. Either way, it's probably mostly a fish spinner.
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