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#Beryl on track to become a Major while crossing or near the Windwards. Low behind it now Invest #96L with 70% odds. #94L in Bay of Campeche as well. What month is this?
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#6A 7:00 am EDT
10.5N 52.2W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 983mb
Moving:
W at 20 mph
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Major Hurricane Omar
      Wed Oct 15 2008 11:29 PM

Note: this post is 24 to 25 hours after the above post. What a difference a day makes... What a horrible night~ danielw

As of the latest Advisory. Major Hurricane Omar has 115mph sustained winds and will pass very close to, or over the island Of St Croix.

MCP measured by the latest RECON pass is 967mb.
Latest METAR from CHRISTIANSTED TISX, located at 17.7N/ 64.8W follows:
TISX 160253Z AUTO 01034G51KT 1 3/4SM BR BKN010 BKN021 OVC036 24/23 A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 01051/0244 RAE38 PRESFR SLP966 P0065 60149

Translation:
Conditions at: TISX (CHRISTIANSTED, VI) observed 0253 UTC 16 October 2008
Temperature: 23.9°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 996.6 mb]
Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 knots; 17.7 m/s)
gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.75 miles (2.82 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2100 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3600 feet AGL
Weather: BR (mist)

Not a good night for sleeping.

Possibly the worst scenario of Major Hurricane Omar is it's direction of movement. Most of the tropical sustems that pass through the Eastern Caribbean Sea move from East to West. Pushing any waves and tidal surge away from the islands.
Omar is moving to the NE at this time pushing waves and surge toward the Southwestern facing beaches and bays of the various islands.
Quick calculation of the possible surge depth is deltaP divided by 4.
1013-970= 43mb / 4 = 10.75feet of Possible Surge.

Significant wave height calculation is deltaP x 0.20.
43 x 0.20 = Possible significant wave height of 8.6meters or 28.21 feet.

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 15 2008 11:33 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Omar Strengtheng Hurricane Watches up for Puerto Rico, TD#16 moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 15 2008 11:29 PM
. * * Re: 91L? MichaelA   Wed Oct 22 2008 10:24 AM
. * * Re: 91L? Ronn   Tue Oct 21 2008 10:49 PM
. * * Re: 91L? MichaelA   Tue Oct 21 2008 07:37 PM
. * * 91 ltpat228   Mon Oct 20 2008 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 91L? Ed in Va   Mon Oct 20 2008 02:47 PM
. * * 91L? ltpat228   Mon Oct 20 2008 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Omar Strengthening Hurricane Watches up for Puerto Rico, TD#16 moving West Northwest cieldumort   Sun Oct 19 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Omar Raymond   Thu Oct 16 2008 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Omar Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 16 2008 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Omar WeatherNut   Thu Oct 16 2008 01:47 AM
. * * Major Hurricane Omar danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2008 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Oct 14 2008 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 14 2008 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Raymond   Tue Oct 14 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Rich B   Tue Oct 14 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Raymond   Tue Oct 14 2008 02:28 PM

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