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#Beryl official forecast track continues to nudge to the right. Hurricane Watches seem likely by tonight for portions of the Texas coast #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 310 (Idalia) , Major: 310 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 310 (Idalia) Major: 310 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#28 4:00 pm EDT
20.7N 88.3W
Wind: 85MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Wnw at 16 mph
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks
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Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: 91L?
      Tue Oct 21 2008 10:49 PM

Any development of 91L will likely be non-tropical in nature. Wind shear will be too strong across the eastern GOM to permit tropical development, but a weak baroclinic low pressure system looks like a good bet. Here is part of the forecast discussion from the NWS Tampa/Ruskin earlier today:

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...MODELS BEGINNING TO COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH GULF SYSTEM TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
LOW FROM S PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS RV VALLEY WITH SW FLOW OVER THE
GULF AND FLORIDA AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATE OVERHEAD
IN UPPER FLOW. WEAK BAROCLINIC/NON TROPICAL/COLD CORE LOW EXPECTED
TO FORM IN S GULF ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NNE WARD. WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FL PENINSULA THU NT THEN NORTH HALF FRI WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THU NT-FRI AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE
POPS AS WE GET MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO. AROUND 1012MB LOW
AND COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE PUSHED OVER THE AREA FRI NT
INTO SAT WITH POTENT VORT MAX. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
CONVERGENCE.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Omar Strengtheng Hurricane Watches up for Puerto Rico, TD#16 moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 21 2008 10:49 PM
. * * Re: 91L? MichaelA   Wed Oct 22 2008 10:24 AM
. * * Re: 91L? Ronn   Tue Oct 21 2008 10:49 PM
. * * Re: 91L? MichaelA   Tue Oct 21 2008 07:37 PM
. * * 91 ltpat228   Mon Oct 20 2008 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 91L? Ed in Va   Mon Oct 20 2008 02:47 PM
. * * 91L? ltpat228   Mon Oct 20 2008 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Omar Strengthening Hurricane Watches up for Puerto Rico, TD#16 moving West Northwest cieldumort   Sun Oct 19 2008 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Omar Raymond   Thu Oct 16 2008 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Omar Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 16 2008 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Omar WeatherNut   Thu Oct 16 2008 01:47 AM
. * * Major Hurricane Omar danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 15 2008 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Oct 14 2008 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 14 2008 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Raymond   Tue Oct 14 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Rich B   Tue Oct 14 2008 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean Raymond   Tue Oct 14 2008 02:28 PM

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