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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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Cat 5orBust
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Posts: 90
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
      Tue Nov 04 2008 08:34 PM

I don't really trust those model runs yet as many of them have been initiating the center a little bit south of where the center may be located or re-locating to. If this does develop, and it appears it will, as there is an anticyclone right over it and wind shear to its north does not seem to be an issue as of right now, then the models will get a better handle on things once an official center is used. I know the models turn it northeast and that will happen at some point, but there is a lot of speculation as to how strong the trough and how far south it will push. With it being election day, not many people paying attention to this feature, but I would't rule South Florida out of the potential path just yet. Not only that, but if it gets its act together, this could strengthen into something a bit more than what early intensity runs are showing. I don't think it will reach a high end cat 2 as the HWRF model had earlier, but it would not be surprisng if it did reach hurricane strength which not many models call for right now. People in the Caribbean, S. FL, and the Bahamas should start to pay a bit more attention as this feature is flying under the radar right now with all the focus on the election.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 17 Forms. No Threat to Mainland US MikeCAdministrator Tue Nov 04 2008 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Paloma La Nimo   Fri Nov 07 2008 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Paloma WeatherNut   Thu Nov 06 2008 11:53 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Paloma danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 06 2008 12:10 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean Cat 5orBust   Wed Nov 05 2008 09:31 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean mikethewreck   Wed Nov 05 2008 09:25 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean scottsvb   Wed Nov 05 2008 06:30 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean LoisCane   Wed Nov 05 2008 05:03 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 05 2008 01:39 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean cieldumort   Wed Nov 05 2008 06:51 AM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean Storm Cooper   Wed Nov 05 2008 02:35 AM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Nov 04 2008 11:53 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean Cat 5orBust   Tue Nov 04 2008 08:34 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean MichaelA   Tue Nov 04 2008 07:33 PM
. * * Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Nov 04 2008 01:22 AM

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