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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2313
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
Wed Nov 05 2008 06:51 AM

The slowly organizing disturbance in the western Caribbean is closer than ever to becoming a tropical depression. Over the course of the last 72 hours, this broad area of low pressure has become better organized, with progressively more favorable upper-level winds aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures below. Pressures have now been falling a bit over the most recent 24 hours, and winds continue picking up.

All indications are that Invest 93L has a better-than-average chance of becoming our next named tropical cyclone. Steering currents favor a track to the east-northeast to northeast, and it could impact Florida and/or, as well as many of the islands to its east-northeast, whether or not a tropical storm forms.

Should Invest 93L develop into a tropical cyclone that tracks to the ENE to NE, upper-level winds could conspire with the steering flow to induce quite a bit of exhaust, and this cyclone could have a very good chance of intensifying rapidly at one point or another, not at all unlike Omar of just last month.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression 17 Forms. No Threat to Mainland US	MikeC	Wed Nov 05 2008 06:51 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Paloma	La Nimo	Fri Nov 07 2008 12:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Paloma	WeatherNut	Thu Nov 06 2008 11:53 PM
Tropical Storm Paloma	danielw	Thu Nov 06 2008 12:10 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	Cat 5orBust	Wed Nov 05 2008 09:31 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	mikethewreck	Wed Nov 05 2008 09:25 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	scottsvb	Wed Nov 05 2008 06:30 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	LoisCane	Wed Nov 05 2008 05:03 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	danielw	Wed Nov 05 2008 01:39 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	cieldumort	Wed Nov 05 2008 06:51 AM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	Storm Cooper	Wed Nov 05 2008 02:35 AM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	LoisCane	Tue Nov 04 2008 11:53 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	Cat 5orBust	Tue Nov 04 2008 08:34 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	MichaelA	Tue Nov 04 2008 07:33 PM
Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean	LoisCane	Tue Nov 04 2008 01:22 AM

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